石油2024—分析和预测至2030年

Analysis and forecast to 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policies thatwill enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31member countries,13associationcountries and beyond. IEA membercountries: IEA associationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Energy supply security remains a central pillar of the global policy agenda asinternational oil trade flows are upended by wide-ranging sanctions on Russia andattacks on tankers transiting the critical Red Sea shipping corridor. At the sametime,Asia’s growing structural shortfall in crude and oil products and theever-expanding supply surplus in the Atlantic Basin are creating new trade routesin the global oil market. This eastward shift to non-OECD Asia, especially Chinaand India, is coinciding with a multitude of new challenges driving oil marketactivity as the energy transition gathers pace. Increased use of EVs, emergingclean energy technologies and more expansive efficiency policies are combiningto chart a much slower growth trajectory for oil demand, plateauing towards theend of our 2023-2030 forecast period.Oil 24, the IEA’s medium-term outlook,explores these critical developments and their impact on the global oil market. Oil 2024looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthlyOil Market Reportto provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply anddemand dynamics through to 2030. The report provides detailed analysis andforecasts of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions. It alsooutlines projected supply from planned upstream and downstream projects aroundthe world. Our findings provide compelling insights on spare production capacity,product supply and trade flows, as well as the implications of surging output ofnatural gas liquids (NGLs) in this era of petrochemical-driven demand growth. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division (OIMD) ofthe Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. Toril Bosoni, head of OIMD, ledthe analysis and editing of the report. The principal authors are, in alphabeticalorder, Yuya Akizuki, Alexander Bressers, Joel Couse, Ciarán Healy, Peg Mackey,David Martin, Jacob Messing, Jeremy Moorhouse and Jenny Thomson. RamizFarishta and Julien Canu provided statistical support and essential researchassistance. Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA’s Directorate of Energy MarketsandSecurity,provided expert guidance and advice.Deven Mooneesawmyprovided essential editorial and publishing support. Diane Munro carried editorialresponsibility. Lorenzo Squillace designed the cover. The report benefited greatly from valuable insights and feedback provided bysenior management and other colleagues from across the IEA, including LauraCozzi, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Farrah Boularas, Leonardo Collina, JérômeHilaire,Tae-Yoon Kim,Christophe McGlade,Rebecca McKimm,ApostolosPetropoulos, Courtney Turich and Arturo Regalado. The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production and launchsupport. Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen and his team; Curtis Brainard, AstridDumond, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Julia Horowitz, Rob Stone, Clara Vallois andLucile Wall. Table of contents Executive summary................................................................................................................. 6Demand................................................................................................................................. 11Global summary ....................................................................................................................... 11Fundamentals........................................................................................................................... 16Road fuel demand approaching peak ...................................................................................... 20Efficiencies slow jet and marine fuel growth ............................................................................ 25Oil displacement in power ge