铜锌周报：有色普涨

铜锌周报 有色金属 有色普涨 姓名：龙奥明宝城期货投资咨询部从业资格证号：F3035632投资咨询证号：Z0014648电话：0571-87006873邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 核心观点 铜：宏观属性推升铜价 本周上半周铜价上行，突破3月下旬高点，一度站上74000关口；下半周国内休市，海外持续拉升，伦铜涨幅近3%。近期有色呈现普涨态势，铜的金融属性较强，美元及美股高位回落很大程度上助推了铜价上行，与黄金上涨同理。国内季节性累库接近尾声，显性库存较去年农历同期上升约1万吨。产业中性，宏观利好，节后铜价高开关注76000一线多空博弈。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 锌：有色普涨，锌价补涨 本周上半周锌价持续反弹，站上21000关口；下半周国内休市，海外持续拉升，伦锌涨幅近5%。近期有色呈现普涨态势，锌的金融属性次于铜，但整体估值较低，弹性较强。产业上，海外伦锌上周去库近1万吨；国内季节性累库后社库较去年农历同期上升近3.5万吨。3月锌价上涨乏力，4月休市期间锌价补涨，节后关注22000一线多空博弈。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 正文目录 铜市场概述....................................................................5锌市场概述....................................................................51宏观因素....................................................................62铜..........................................................................72.1市场回顾...............................................................72.2铜精矿供应趋紧.........................................................82.3电解铜供应收缩.........................................................92.4电解铜季节性累库......................................................103锌.........................................................................113.1行情回顾..............................................................113.2锌矿趋紧..............................................................123.3精炼锌产量高位........................................................133.4内外库存分化..........................................................143.5镀锌产量维持高位......................................................154结论.......................................................................16 图表目录 图1美债走势................................................................................................................................................................6图2美元走势................................................................................................................................................................6图3伦铜与VIX走势..................................................................................................................................................6图4铜期价走势...........................................................................................................................................................7图5铜沪伦比值...........................................................................................................................................................7图6伦铜升贴水...........................................................................................................................................................7图7 1#电解铜升贴水季节性....................................................................................................................................7图8 1#电解铜基差......................................................................................................................................................7图9铜月差.....................................................................................................................................................................7图10 ICSG铜精矿全球产量.....................................................................................................................................8图11铜砂矿及精矿进口...........................................................................................................................................8图12铜精矿港口库存................................................................................................................................................8图13铜精矿TC加工费.............................................................................................................................................8图14精炼铜供需平衡................................................................................................................................................9图15电解铜产量.........................................................................................................................................................9图16电解铜净进口....................................................................................................................................................9图17国内电解铜库存..............................................................................................................................................10图18国内显性库存（Mysteel社库+保税区）...............................................................................................10图19全球交易所库存（SHFE+LME+COMEX+保税区）............................................................................10图20锌价走势............................................................................................................................................................11图21锌沪伦比值.......................................................................................................................................................11图22伦锌升贴水.....................................................