聚烯烃日报：库存去化缓慢，石化库存再度累库

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性。聚烯烃现货市场价格涨跌互现，盘面震荡走势。国际油价下行，成本端支撑走弱。短期企业装置检修有限，石化库存周末再度累库，去化相对缓慢，供应压力偏大。PE下游地膜需求迎来旺季，订单呈小幅增长趋势，PP下游需求缓慢恢复，市场交投偏淡。PP拉丝排产大幅走低，PP共聚排产上行。PP出口窗口打开支撑价格，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭。预计短期聚烯烃维持窄幅震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存94.5万吨，较上一工作日累库6.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在-90元/吨，PP华东基差在-70元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，油价下行，原油制聚烯烃成本支撑走弱，丙烷大幅走弱后价格趋于稳定，PDH制PP生产利润修复。中化泉州40 HDPE装置、东莞巨正源二期60PP装置重启、东莞巨正源一期60 PP装置停车检修，PE开工负荷提升，PP开工负荷大体维持。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%......................................................................................................................................................