聚烯烃日报：石化库存累库，聚烯烃震荡走低

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 PE谨慎偏空，PP中性：聚烯烃开工率提升，未来计划检修装置较少，上游生产企业累库。下游农膜季节性需求继续提升，包装膜开工小幅提升，但是抬升缓慢，市场订单微幅增量，需求弱于往年。国际油价震荡走低，对聚烯烃成本端支撑偏弱。PDH制PP生产利润小幅修复，但目前仍维持亏损，PDH开工维持低位。预计PE偏弱震荡，PP区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存82万吨（6.5）。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在230元/吨，PP华东基差在160元/吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，聚烯烃开工率提升，未来计划检修装置较少。国际油价震荡走低，对聚烯烃成本端支撑偏弱。PDH制PP生产利润小幅修复，但目前仍维持亏损，PDH开工维持低位。 进出口方面，LL进口利润盈亏平衡附近，PP出口窗口关闭。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润