聚烯烃周报：新增产能释放，石化库存累库

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 谨慎偏空：春节假期期间，上游石化库存出现大幅累积。节后归来，埃克森美孚惠州一期LLDPE新装置试车成功，山东新时代LLDPE装置试车产出合格品，HDPE装置计划近期试车，计划2月投产，国内供应持续偏高，供应端压力逐渐增大，存量装置开工负荷处于高位水平，PE基差持续回落。原油偏弱震荡，丙烷价格持稳，聚烯烃成本端支撑略有松动。下游开工处于淡季，农膜、包装膜开工率缓慢提升，塑编与注塑厂家逐步复工，维持刚需采购，三月地膜即将进入需求旺季，开工有提升预期，预计短期聚烯烃价格偏弱运行。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 联系人 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 石化库存93万吨，较上年前累库46万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差+230元/吨，PP华东基差-60元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油偏弱震荡，丙烷价格持稳，聚烯烃成本端支撑略有松动。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，下游开工处于淡季，农膜、包装膜开工率缓慢提升，塑编与注塑厂家逐步复工，维持刚需采购，三月地膜即将进入需求旺季，开工有提升预期。 刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168 ■策略 谨慎偏空。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨...............