聚烯烃日报：石化库存缓慢去库，聚烯烃偏弱震荡

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 假期原油价格大幅回调，受巴以冲突影响油价反弹，原油价格上涨。聚烯烃期现价格均下跌，市场气氛偏弱。聚烯烃生产利润大幅修复，成本端支撑减弱。PE开工负荷提升至高位，PP装置假期后停车检修数量增至七套，PP开工率降低，十月宁波金发PP装置一线已出粒料，二线月底投产，聚烯烃供应端压力加大。石化库存假期累库，目前缓慢去库，中游库存去化速率偏慢。下游工厂传统开工旺季“金九银十”未兑现，关注下游需求恢复情况。欧美内外盘价差走高，进口窗口均关闭。预计聚烯烃偏弱震荡。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 库存方面，石化库存80万吨，相比前一日去库2.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在+100元/吨，PP华东基差在+70元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，受巴以冲突影响，国际原油价格日内小幅上涨，假期原油大幅下跌，聚烯烃生产利润修复，成本端支撑减弱。 PE存量装置开工负荷持续提升，PE开工负荷已至高位。节后多套PP装置停车检修，包括上海石化20 PP、山东京博40 PP、洛阳石化8PP、海南乙烯20 PP、福建联合33PP、湛江东兴14 PP等装置，PP开工率降低。 进出口方面，欧美内外盘价差走高，进口窗口均关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：暂观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%........................................................................................................................