锌月报：锌价震荡偏强 等待消费验证

锌价震荡偏强 等待消费验证 核心观点及策略 要点要点宏观面看，美国通胀回落受阻，市场进一步修整降息预期，预计美联储年内首次降息节点延后至6月份，全年降息三到四次，美元偏强。国内经济修复且政策预期强，带动市场情绪回暖。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 要点供应端看，海外矿山扰动事件较多，国内矿山未完全复产，锌矿收紧逐步传导至冶炼端。当前加工费及锌价下，炼厂亏损增多，强化减产预期。在内强外弱的背景下，沪伦比价回升，精炼锌进口窗口间歇式开启，进口货源或有少量流入，但整体供应压力已较去年下半年有明显边际改善。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，LME库存快速攀升及现货贴水走扩，均指向海外消费不佳。国内节后下游消费逐步回归，基建项目托底，汽车及家电“以旧换新”政策加持，风光新增装机量增速高位回落，地产政策呵护但实际效果依旧一般，消费尚稳健，等待政策更多刺激提振。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，国内政策向好部分对冲了海外降息预期下调的影响，锌产业链上游成本支撑依然有效，且国内消费在回归路上，支撑锌价低位反弹。不过，海外的交仓风险及国内消费成色尚未可知，使得锌价反弹难一蹴而就。考虑到当前锌价估值偏低，逢低做多风险有限，预计3月沪锌主要运行区间在20000-21500元/吨。 王工建021-68555105wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 策略建议：逢低做多，跨期正套 风险因素：宏观风险，海外交仓，需求不及预期 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................73.1.1全球锌矿供应频出扰动，国内矿山尚未完全恢复...........................................................73.1.2内外加工费低位，炼厂原料库存回落.............................................................................83.2精炼锌供应情况.......................................................................................................................93.2.1全球精炼锌供应逐步恢复...................................................................................................93.2.2利润不佳炼厂存减产预期，锌锭进口或有补充..............................................................113.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................123.3.1海外需求偏弱.....................................................................................................................123.3.2国内淡旺季转换，待消费验证.........................................................................................133.3.3终端需求稳健，地产仍为主要拖累项.............................................................................143.4内外库存均走高，国内累库弱于季节性....................................17 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................6图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................6图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................7图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................7图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内GDP增速..............................................................................................................7图表10全球锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................8图表11内锌矿月度产量情况...................................................................................................8图表12内外矿加工费维持弱势..............................................................................................9图表13锌矿进口窗口长期关闭..............................................................................................9图表14锌矿进口情况..............................................................................................................9图表15冶炼厂原料库存..........................................................................................................9图表16 2024年海外冶炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）............................................................10图表17 2021年四季度至今欧洲冶炼厂减复产情况（万吨）............................................10图表18全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................11图表19国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................11图表20冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................11图表21精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................12图表22精炼锌进口窗口短暂开启再关闭............................................................................12图表23全球精炼锌月度需求情况........................................................................................13图表24美国