锌月报：产业矛盾有限 锌价随预期摇摆

产业矛盾有限 锌价随预期摇摆 核心观点及策略 要点要点宏观面看，美国通胀缓解经济就业韧性强，美联储降息紧迫性下降，鲍威尔重创3月降息预期，市场预计首次降息节点推迟至5月。国内货币稳健宽松，地产优化松绑，政策维持偏暖但未有超预期内容。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 要点供应端看，全球锌矿供应收紧，叠加国内北方矿山生产淡季，内外加工费维持偏弱，但跌势放缓。海外新星欧洲炼厂再停产，精炼锌供应压力边际减弱。国内炼厂利润低位且部分检修部分放假，精炼锌月供应见顶回落。同时，精炼锌进口窗口多持关闭状态，海外货源冲击有限。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，欧美微观消费喜忧参半，现货溢价延续回落，需求疲软未改善。国内初端企业逐步放假，但放假周期较往年偏短，叠加国内炼厂合金生产比例增加，春节累库将低于往年同期。终端消费延续分化，基建好转，汽车家电及新增消费尚可，地产依旧构成拖累。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，海外宏观继续围绕降息节点及经济软着陆的逻辑展开，国内暂未有超预期政策，但市场仍抱有期待。国内长假上下游均走弱，未有新矛盾点，锌价走势跟随宏观预期摇摆，预计2月沪锌主要运行区间在20500-22000元/吨。 王工建021-68555105wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 策略建议：区间内高抛低吸风险因素：宏观风险，需求不及预期 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................52.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................62.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................7 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................93.1.1全球锌矿供需短缺...............................................................................................................93.1.2内外加工费低位，锌矿进口预期环比回落...................................................................103.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................113.2.1全球精炼锌供应逐步恢复.................................................................................................113.2.2国内精炼锌供应见顶，锌锭进口放缓..............................................................................123.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................143.3.1海外需求偏弱.....................................................................................................................143.3.2国内表观需求亮眼，出口有提振.....................................................................................163.3.3终端需求分化，地产为主要拖累项.................................................................................173.4海外库存高位回落，国内累库兑现........................................20 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................5图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................7图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................7图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................8图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................8图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................8图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................8图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................8图表9国内GDP增速..............................................................................................................8图表10全球锌矿月度产量情况.............................................................................................10图表11内锌矿月度产量情况.................................................................................................10图表12内外矿加工费维持弱势............................................................................................10图表13锌矿进口窗口维持关闭............................................................................................10图表14锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................11图表15冶炼厂原料库存........................................................................................................11图表16 2021年四季度至今欧洲冶炼厂减复产情况（万吨）............................................12图表17 2024年海外冶炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）............................................................11图表18全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................12图表19国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................13图表20冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................13图表21精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................13图表22精炼锌进口窗口短暂开启再关闭............................................................................13图表23 2023-2024国内新增冶炼产能（万吨）...................................................................14图表24全球精炼锌月度需求情况....