聚烯烃周报：PDH开工走低，聚烯烃偏强震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议暂观望。国际油价持续下行后触底反弹，成本端支撑偏弱，聚烯烃价格涨跌互现，油制PE生产利润保持盈利，油制PP生产利润持续修复，丙烷价格回落，PDH制PP利润修复，仍维持亏损，PDH开工率再度走低。PE开工负荷已至高位，PP开工负荷维持低位，供应端持续减量。PE在高开工下社会库存累库，PP库存小幅去库，维持低位。临近年末PE下游需求季节性转淡，PP需求偏弱，上中游多积极让利出货缓解年内销售压力，聚烯烃市场上涨空间有限。LL进口窗口维持打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 联系人 石化库存61万吨，较上周去库2.5万吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 基差方面，LL华东基差+130，PP华东基差-10，基差走强。 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际油价持续下行后触底反弹，成本端支撑偏弱，聚烯烃价格变化不大，油制PE生产利润保持盈利，油制PP生产利润持续修复，丙烷价格回落，PDH制PP利润修复，仍维持亏损，PDH开工率再度走低。PE开工率94.1%（+1.4%），PP开工率84.5%（-0.7%），PE开工负荷已至高位，PP开工负荷维持低位，供应端持续减量。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口维持打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工率下降1%，PP下游BOPP开工率提升1%，HDPE部分下游开工亦转弱，预计需求持续走低。 ■策略 建议暂观望。 ■风险 原油价格大涨，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......