聚烯烃日报：开工持续回归，聚烯烃偏强震荡

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 聚烯烃盘面价格偏强震荡，现货小幅上涨，但基本面仍一般。PE非标品开工率大幅提升，PE开工率已至较高水平。PP生产利润有所修复，部分PDH制PP装置重启，PP开工率止跌回升，PP拉丝开工率反弹。石化库存小幅累库，库存总量整体压力不大，基本供需平衡。下游工厂开工率小幅回升，需求逐渐改善但整体恢复仍偏慢。人民币持续弱势，聚烯烃进口成本提升，进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存65万吨，相比上一工作日增加3万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在+50元/吨，PP华东基差在-80元/吨，基差稳定。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油制LL利润维持小幅亏损，油制PP生产利润亏损较大。PDH制PP利润处于盈亏平衡线附近。 PE开工率持续提升，已至较高水平，标品开工率呈现下降趋势，PE非标品开工率上升。PP利润有所修复，PP拉丝开工率低位反弹，总开工率止跌回升。 进出口方面，人民币汇率弱势，聚烯烃进口成本提升，PE进口窗口关闭，PP进口处于盈亏平衡。 ■策略 （1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化，人民币贬值风险。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨......