聚烯烃周报：开工提升，聚烯烃偏强震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议观望。本周聚烯烃盘面高位震荡，基差变化不大，现货价格小幅上涨，但下游采购意愿不强，交投偏弱。聚烯烃生产利润持续修复，检修装置陆续重启，总体开工率保持上升，下游需求恢复不同步，PP标品开工率持续走弱，PE非标开工上升。上游库存小幅去库，库存结构维持低位，中游去化速率偏慢。关注宝丰三期新装置月底正式投产情况。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存59.5万吨，较上周五减少2.5万吨，小幅去库，维持低位。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，PE华东基差-40，PP华东基差-80，与上周相比基差变化不大。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油等上游价格回调，原油制LL与PDH制PP生产利润周内持续修复，处于盈亏平衡线之上，原油制PP生产利润已处于深度亏损状态。PE开工率92%（+3.7%），PP开工率89.1%（+1.2%），聚烯烃开工率持续提升。 进出口方面，PE进口窗口本周已打开，PP进口窗口依然关闭。 下游需求方面，部分下游如PE下游农膜与PP下游BOPP膜季节性恢复，但总体复苏情况仍一般，订单依然偏弱，维持刚需采购。 ■策略 建议观望。 ■风险 原油价格波动，人民币贬值风险，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃库存.......................................................................................................................................................................................11 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图4:PE开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图7:PP开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................6图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................6图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................6图11:HD开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................6图12:LD开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................6图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................7图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................................7图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................7图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%........................................................................................................................................................7图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................................8图19:LL美湾FOB-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨...............................................................................................................................8图20:LL东南亚CFR-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨...........................................................................................................................8图21:LL西北欧FD-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨.........