聚烯烃周报：开工负荷回升，聚烯烃偏弱震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议暂观望。本周聚烯烃持续下行后小幅反弹，现货维持弱势。丙烷价格连续下行，PDH制PP利润实现盈利。原油偏弱震荡，近期多套装置陆续重启，检修损失量逐步降低，开工负荷回升，供应压力增加，上游库存压力较大。需求后期将持续减弱，部分下游企业一月中旬开始陆续放假。外盘聚烯烃价格走高，进出口窗口均关闭。下游需求疲软，市场交投偏弱，等待企稳后的做多机会。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存62万吨，较上周去库2.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差+70，PP华东基差-20，基差走强。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 生产利润及国内开工方面，油制PE生产利润小幅下行，仍保持盈利，丙烷价格连续回落，PDH制PP利润修复，实现盈利。PE开工率88.5%（+1.7%），PP开工率84.7%（+1.8%），近期多套装置陆续重启，检修损失量逐步降低，开工负荷回升，供应压力增加。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工率42%（+2%），包装膜开工率55%（0）；PP下游塑编开工率39%（0%），BOPP开工率53%（-2%），非标品下游开工未有变化，需求偏弱。 ■策略 建议暂观望。 ■风险 地缘政治风险、原油价格大涨，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨.............................................................................