纸浆月报：国内造纸温和复苏，欧洲消费延续疲软

2023年10月29日 国内造纸温和复苏，欧洲消费延续疲软 商品宏观报告 研究员： 阔叶浆相对与针叶浆继续走强，价差由9月初的-930元/吨，收窄至10月末的-650元/吨。9月，国内造纸业经营健康：机制纸及纸板产量报收1287万吨，同比增产+11.2%，连续4个月边际增产；造纸企业亏损减少；造纸业投产边际增量。 潘盛杰期货从业证号：F3035353投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607手机号：166-2162-2706邮箱：panshengjie_qh@chinastock.com.cn微博： 10月，波罗的海干散货指数报收1940点，同比上涨+6.1%，这是2022年3月以来首次同比上涨。9月，国内沿海码头货物吞吐量报收9.08亿吨，同比增量+7.7%，连续8个月边际增量。当前物流成本具有足够的价额优势，利于贸易需求的释放。 国内零售消费表现一般：9月，国内零售业数据多持平，板块包括日用品、化妆品、文体用品及家电音像器材。欧洲纸制品消费延续疲软：9月木浆消费同比减量-19.3%，持续19个月边际减量；9月，英国报纸及期刊周均零售额报收0.63亿英镑，同比增量+1.2%，连续7个月边际减量。9月，欧元区书报文具调和CPI报收126.3点，同比上涨+5.3%，终止了持续了24个月的边际上涨。 基本面偏弱。 目录 目录2 一、说明.....................................................................................................................................6 1、综合指数...........................................................................................................................10 三、宏观供应.........................................................................................................................11 1、海外数据...........................................................................................................................11 A.美国新屋开工.............................................................................................................11 1、海外数据...........................................................................................................................12 A.CME木材期货...........................................................................................................12B.加拿大木材价格.........................................................................................................12C.俄罗斯木材业.............................................................................................................13D.南非锯木业销售.........................................................................................................14 2、国内数据...........................................................................................................................15 A.进口量-锯材...............................................................................................................15 五、贸易流通|纸浆端............................................................................................................16 2、相对价差...........................................................................................................................17 A.交割利润：人民币针叶浆基差季节性..................................................................17B.交割利润：美元针叶浆（银星）基差季节性......................................................21C.跨品种价差：非标基差&加工利润.....................................................................25 3、海外数据...........................................................................................................................29 A.波罗的海干散货指数................................................................................................29 B.进口金额-美国纸浆及废纸......................................................................................30C.加拿大交通运输.........................................................................................................31D.欧洲纸浆库存&消费.................................................................................................31E.日本纸浆......................................................................................................................33F.韩国贸易收支平衡-回收纸.......................................................................................35 4、国内数据...........................................................................................................................35 A.进口量-纸浆...............................................................................................................35B.纸浆产量.....................................................................................................................37C.纸浆库存.....................................................................................................................38D.沿海货物吞吐总量....................................................................................................39E.进出口总额.................................................................................................................40F.CCFI出口集装箱运价................................................................................................40 六、微观消费|造纸端............................................................................................................42 1、海外数据...........................................................................................................................42 A.美国库销比.................................................................................................................42B.书籍报纸.....................................................................................................................43C.日本纸及纸制品销售额............................................................................................45D.泰国造纸业劳动成本................................................................................................46 2、国内数据.................