短期预计小金属价格持续震荡偏弱

短期预计小金属价格持续震荡偏弱 孙伟东有色首席分析师从业资格号：F3035243投资咨询号：Z0014605Tel:8621-63325888Email:weidong.sun@orientfutures.com 报告日期： 2023年10月30日 ★小金属行情回顾 小金属指数：本周小金属行业指数止跌反弹，截至周五行业指数收14759.97点，大涨5.21%，大多数成分股终止4个月以来的持续走低。 联系人李航从业资格号：F03107635Tel:8621-63325888Email:hang.li@orientfutures.com 钨钼：本周钼市场走弱，终端需求放缓，贸易商进一步试探价格。钼精矿45%均价自3265下调至3215元/吨。55%-65%钨精矿均价在11.8-12.0万元/吨范围，较上周价格减少1000元/吨。APT88.5%价格为17.9万元/吨，钨铁W70主流均价17.5万元/吨，均较国庆前下降。 锰铬：本周锰矿市场运行平稳较弱，澳洲46%锰矿37.25-38.25元/吨度，加蓬44%锰矿价格在36.25-37.25元/吨度左右，较月初下滑明显。铬市整体价格保持弱稳态势，不过整体行情弱势阴跌局面未改，市场偏空仍旧占据上风，供需处于僵持博弈。 ★动态点评 鉴于小金属指数经历大幅度调整目前处于相对低点，未来具备进一步上升空间。另外宏观数据也证明中国经济持续向好，社融两个月超预期的表现，9月PMI新订单自8月份的50.2%上升至50.5%，节后房地产楼市亦出现回暖表现，未来经济与地产向好局面持续，能够拉动需求从而带动指数反弹后长期向上。 钨钼：钼未来需关注成交情况以及11月钢招总量能否恢复至一万吨以上常态水平。可能转入的强预期，弱现实的市场局面可能会导致钼价进入平缓的运行轨道。钨将面临短期的低迷走势，企业开动率较低叠加需求不温不火，但其上游供给较为固定，且冶炼厂利润变薄，成本支撑显现，难现大涨大跌。 锰铬：锰短期内受到外盘South32对12月锰矿进行报价的影响，市场预计价格较高，未来还存在走高后向下调整的可能。铬市目前受制于不锈钢市场的低迷，若国内宏观走势好转，钢材需求回暖，则存在反弹向上的情形。 ★风险提示 下游需求不及预期；企业利润不及预期；地产复苏不及预期。 目录 1.标的跟踪......................................................................................................................................................................................................42.小金属价格跟踪.........................................................................................................................................................................................53.小金属供给及进出口数据.......................................................................................................................................................................94.资讯汇总....................................................................................................................................................................................................114.1国内上市公司资讯..............................................................................................................................................................................114.2国内行业资讯.......................................................................................................................................................................................124.3国际行业咨询.......................................................................................................................................................................................134.4政策资讯................................................................................................................................................................................................145.行业观点....................................................................................................................................................................................................156.风险提示....................................................................................................................................................................................................16 图表目录 图表1：申万行业指数：小金属......................................................................................................................................................................................4图表2：稀土行业指数与价格指数.................................................................................................................................................................................4图表3：相关上市公司本周行情......................................................................................................................................................................................4图表4：钨精矿主流均价...................................................................................................................................................................................................5图表5：钨铁、APT价格...................................................................................................................................................................................................5图表6：钼精矿均价............................................................................................................................................................................................................6图表7：钼铁均价.................................................................................................................................................................................................................6图表8：锰矿均价.................................................................................................................................................................................................................6图表9：电解锰均价............................................................................................................................................................................................................6图表10：锰矿南非均价...........................................................................................................................................................................