美联储观察员 ： “足够严格 ” 取决于数据

美联储观察员：“限制性强”取决于数据 艾米·杨经济学家(+ 1) 212 250 9959 | amy. yang @ db. com 马修·卢泽蒂美国首席经济学家(+ 1) 212 250 6161 | matthew. luzzetti @ db. com 布雷特·瑞安高级经济师(+ 1) 212 250 6294 | brett. ryan @ db. com 贾斯汀·魏德纳经济学家(+ 1) 212 469 1679 | justin - s. weidner @ db. com DB Fed Watcher：“充分限制”取决于数据 Summary:Fe d c o m m u n ic a tio n s k e e p o p tio n a lity o n fu r r r r r r te in c re a s e s，w ith a fe w o ffic ia ls n o tin g the s u b s titu te tig hte n in g im p a c t fro m re c e n t yie ris ld e s Cha rt hig h lig hts 最近的出版物：美国Ec o n o m ic Cha rtb o o k: Mo n than c ha rts: Softlandingdreamsorwillthelandslidebring它是wn吗？-Oct-06-2023美国Ec o n o m ic Cha rtb o o k：Mo re o f the s a me，Ju s t a lo t m o f it - Oc t - 06 - 2023 美国o u tlo o k：所以ft la n din g dre a ms o rw la n ds lide b rin g it do w n？-Oc t - 02 - 2023 美国Ec o n o m ic Pe rs p e c tiv e s：Ev e ry thing y o u没有w a n t到k n o w a b o u t a g o v e rn m e n t舒多w n - Se p - 27 - 2023 所以u rc e：FRB Da lla s，FRB Cle v e la n d，BEA，Ha v e r An a ly tic s，De u tsc he Ba n k“全在”数据库代理率远高于7% Fe d No te s：Re c o n n e c tin g the do ts - Se p -25 -2023 Fe d No te s：Se p te m b e r FOMC re c ap：Em b ra c in g the s o ft la n din g s to ry...“小心” - Se p - 20 - 2023 美国Ec o n o m ic Pe rs p e c tiv e s：Yo u c a n te ll ado t从a Fe d 's fo re c a s t re v是io n s - Se p - 18 - 2023 我将在2023年从SEP p te m b e r SEP开始 Ide n fix in g the 2024 do ts fro m the Se p te m b e r SEP 附录1重要披露*根据要求提供的其他信息 * Pric e s a re c u rre n t a o f the e n d o f the p re v io u s tra din g s e s io n u n le s o the rw is e in dic a te d a n d a r o r c a l e x c ha n g e s v ia Re u te rs，Blo o m b e rg a d ov e n do rs. Othe r in fo rm a tio n is s o u rc e d fro m De u ts c he Ba n k, s u b je c t c o m p a n ie s, a n d o the r s o u rc e s. Fo r fu r in fo rm a tio n re g a rdin g dis lo s u re s r rRe s e a rc h，p le a s e v是o u r g lo b a l dis c lo s u re lo o k - u p p p a e o n o u r w e b s ite a t http: / / re s e a rc h. db. c o m / Re s e a rc h / Dis c lo s u re s / FICCDis lo s u re。Im p o rta n t ris k a n d c o n flic t dis c lo s u re s c a n a ls o b e fo u n d a t http s: / / re s e a rc h. db. c o m / Re s e a rc h / Dis c lo s u re s / Dis c la im e r. in v e s to rs a re s tro g e在fo rm a tio n b e re in v e s tin g。 分析师认证 The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst (s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst (s) has not and will在此报告中提供特定建议或观点不会获得任何补偿。Amy Yang，Matthew Luzzetti，Brett Ryan，Justin Weidner Avik Chattopadhyay是Acuity Knowledge Partners的员工，该公司是德意志银行的第三方研究服务提供商。 附加信息 The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively“Deutsche Bank”). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public消息来源被认为是可靠的，德意志银行不对其准确性或完整性发表任何声明。本报告中提供的第三方网站超链接仅用于方便读者。德意志银行也不认可内容，也不对这些网站的准确性或安全控制负责。 如果您在购买或出售本报告中讨论的证券时使用德意志银行的服务，或者在德意志银行分析师的另一份沟通（口头或书面）中包含或讨论，德意志银行可以作为自己账户的委托人，也可以作为他人的代理人。 Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner consistent with the views taken in this research report. Others德意志银行内部，包括策略师、销售人员和其他分析师，可能会采取与本研究报告中不一致的观点。德意志银行发行各种研究产品，包括基本面analysis, equity - linked analysis, and quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of different timehorizons, methodologies or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and / or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its附属公司，包括投资银行、交易和本金交易收入。 意见、估计和预测构成作者截至本报告日期的当前判断。它们不一定反映德意志银行的意见，如有更改，恕不另行通知。德意志Bank research analysts sometimes have shorter - term trade ideas that are consistent or unreconsistent with Deutsche Bank’s existing longterm ratings. Some trade ideas for stocks are listed as Catalyst Calls on the Research网站（https: / / research. db. com / Research），可以在一般覆盖范围列表中找到，也可以在覆盖的公司的页。Catalyst Call代表分析师的高度信念，即股票将跑赢或在不少于两周且不超过三个月的时间范围内，表现不及市场和/或指定行业。除了Catalyst Calls，本报告中提到的分析师可能会不时讨论与我们的客户，包括德意志银行的销售人员和交易员，或可能在本报告或其他地方讨论参考催化剂或事件的交易策略或想法，这些催化剂或事件可能对The market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts 'published price targets, forecasts and other expectations. Any such trading strategies or ideas are distinct from anddo not affect the analysts 'fundamental rating for such securities, which rating reflects the analysts' current 12 - month view of total return as described herein. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend thisreport or otherwise notify a recipient thereof if any opinion, forecast or estimate contained herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in market conditions and in bo