美联储观察员：再耐心一点（再多一点）

Amy YangEconomist Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com DB Fed Watcher: Just a little (more) patience Summary:Strong inflation data pointed to stalling progress and more caution about the timing and extent of rate cuts.DB View: The economy will achieve soft landing. One cut in Dec 2024, followed by 2 cuts in ‘25 and then a pause until Q1 2026. Chart highlights Recent publications: US Economic Chartbook: US Inflation Outlook:Strike three…cuts out–Apr-12-2024 US Economic Notes: March inflation recap: Strikethree...cuts out–Apr-11-2024 Fed Notes: 20bps or bust for '24 cuts?–Apr-082024 Source: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank US Economic Chartbook: March employmenteclipses all expectations–Apr-05-2024 Webinar: March CPI preview & webinarregistration–Apr-05-2024 Webinar: March employment preview & webinarregistration–Apr-03-2024 US Economic Perspectives: Diminishingdowntrend in trend inflation–Apr-03-2024 Source: FRB, HaverAnalytics,Deutsche Bank Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport, Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will notreceive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. Effective13October2023,DeutscheBankAGacquiredNumisCorporationPlcanditssubsidiaries(the“NumisGroup”).NumisSecuritiesLimited(“NSL”)isamemberoftheNumisGroupandafirmauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(FirmReferenceNumber:144822).DeutscheBankAGprovidesclientswith,amongstotherservices,InvestmentResearchservices.NSLprovidesclientswith,amongstotherservices,non-independentresearchservices. Duringaninitialintegrationprocess,theresearchdepartmentsofDeutscheBankAGandNSLwillremainoperationallydistinct.Consequently,disclosuresrelatingtoconflictsofinterestthatmayexistforDeutscheBankAGand/oritsaffiliatesdonotcurrentlytakeintoaccountthebusinessandactivitiesoftheNumisGroup.TheconflictsofinterestthatmayexistfortheNumisGroup,inrelationtotheprovisionofresearch,can be found on the Numis website at https://www.numis.com/legal-and-regulatory/conditions-and-disclaimers-that-govern-research-contained-in-the-research-pages-of-this-website.The Additionally,anydetailedconflictsofinterestdisclosurespertainingtoaspecificrecommendationorestimatemadeonasecuritymentionedinthisreportorwhichhavebeenincludedinourmostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorfoundonourglobaldisclosurelook-uppage,donotcurrentlytakeintoaccountthebusinessandactivitiesoftheNumisGroup.Instead,detailsofdetailedconflictsofinterestdisclosuresfortheNumisGroup,relatingtospecificissuersorsecurities,canbefoundat:https://library.numis.com/regulatory_notice.Theissuer/security-specificconflictofinterestdisclosuresonthisNumis IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearch products,including fundamental analysis,equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas.Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthor