商品研究晨报

观点与策略 黄金：震荡偏强..................................................................................................................................................................................3白银：2024年降息预期调降.........................................................................................................................................................3铜：美元指数走高，压制价格......................................................................................................................................................5铝：高位相对横盘，建议节前轻仓.............................................................................................................................................7氧化铝：高位区间震荡....................................................................................................................................................................7锌：高位调整......................................................................................................................................................................................9铅：短期盘整，中期偏强.............................................................................................................................................................11镍：宏观仍有压制，关注镍板经济性空间.............................................................................................................................13不锈钢：减产有所加剧，原料成本较为坚挺........................................................................................................................13锡：高位回落....................................................................................................................................................................................15工业硅：震荡走弱，节前建议轻仓操作..................................................................................................................................17碳酸锂：延续下跌...........................................................................................................................................................................19铁矿石：偏弱震荡...........................................................................................................................................................................21螺纹钢：需求疲弱，弱势震荡....................................................................................................................................................23热轧卷板：库存压力仍存，偏弱震荡......................................................................................................................................23硅铁：双节临近，避险情绪加重...............................................................................................................................................25锰硅：产需博弈，市场波动放缓...............................................................................................................................................25焦炭：二轮提涨逐步落地，高位震荡......................................................................................................................................27焦煤：高位震荡................................................................................................................................................................................27动力煤：供应扰动延续，高位震荡...........................................................................................................................................29集运指数（欧线）：假期临近，偏弱运行...............................................................................................................................31玻璃：市场变为震荡市趋势仍偏弱.........................................................................................................................................33PTA：多LU空PTA..........................................................................................................................................................................35MEG：多乙二醇空PTA..................................................................................................................................................................35对二甲苯：供应回升，多PTA空PX持有..............................................................................................................................38橡胶：震荡运行................................................................................................................................................................................40合成橡胶：现货成交乏力，偏弱震荡......................................................................................................................................42沥青：现货持稳，轻仓过节.........................................................................................................................................................44LLDPE：回调整理.............................................................................................................................................................................46PP:国庆前短线不追空.....................................................................................................................................................................4