装置开工负荷提升，PVC震荡整理

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC价格震荡整理，重心有所回落。PVC装置开工继续提升，但处于传统旺季中的需求却无亮点，下游制品企业订单及开工率变化不大。市场在当下时间仍对金九银十、节前备货存有预期，且目前仍维持去库状态；原料端电石供给充裕，价格走弱，传导至PVC成本支撑走弱；台塑亚洲市场10月船货报价下跌30-40美元/吨，虽符合市场预期，但前期亮眼的出口驱动或转弱；PVC价格走势虽存预期，但基本面偏弱，结合当前价格，恐后期上行空间压力较大。暂观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至9月22日，周度平均开工负荷率在78.49%，环比上周下降0.01个百分点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC产量及开工率：截至9月22日，整体开工负荷77.37%，环比提升0.46个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷76.97%，环比提升0.78个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷78.56%，环比下降0.52个百分点。 PVC检修：截至9月22日，停车及检修造成的损失量在6.648万吨，较上周增加0.246万吨。预计下周检修损失量将略增。 PVC库存：截至9月15日，仓库总库存39.64万吨，较上一期减少2.6%，同比增加10.17%。 需求：下游制品企业订单无改善。下游维持刚需采购。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................