PVC周报：装置开工负荷继续提升，PVC弱势运行

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC价格弱势运行。目前PVC装置开工负荷继续提升，市场供应充裕；国内需求方面，随着本周价格下行，现货市场低价部分下游补货积极性有所提升。但目前进入传统淡季，下游开工负荷下降，行业库存偏高累库压力逐渐显现；出口市场有待观察，台塑12月报价虽微涨但预计支撑有限；整体看来PVC基本面依旧偏弱。维持观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至11月23日，周度平均开工负荷率在74.10%，环比上周提升0.84个百分点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC产量及开工率：截至11月23日，整体开工负荷77.41%，环比提升1.84个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷77.74%，环比提升2个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷76.42%，环比提升1.36个百分点。 PVC检修：截至11月23日，停车及检修造成的损失量在6.396万吨，较上周下降0.772万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周继续减少。 PVC库存：截至11月23日，仓库总库存38.53万吨，较上一期增加1.64%，同比增加42.97%。 需求：下游制品企业订单无明显改善，但随着本周绝对价格跌至低位，终端补货积极性有所提升。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................6图25:PVC社会库存（卓创）丨单位：万吨...........