人民币汇率周报：7.30政策底再确认！市场底呢？

I 2023731 7.30 - 20111290 Z0017101 7YCCYCCYCC99-103 7.30731847.107.22 7.30 I 2023731 i 1. ......................................................................................... 1 1.1 ............................................................................................. 1 1.2 ......................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 .................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 .................................................................................................... 3 1.3 ........................................................................................................... 3 2. ................................................................................................ 4 2.1 - ................................................................................. 4 2.2 ..................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 ............................................................................................. 4 2.2.2 ............................................................................................. 6 2.2.3 ......................................................................................... 7 2.2.4 ......................................................................................... 8 2.3 ................................................................................................ 8 2.3.1 .......................................................................... 8 2.3.2 ....................................................................... 9 3. ......................................................................................... 9 3.1 .................................................................................. 9 3.2 ........................................................................ 14 ................................................................................................ 16 .................................................................................................. 16 ......................................................................................................... 17 7.30 I 2023731 ii .................................................................................................................... 18 ................................................................................................................. 19 ............................................................................................................. 19 ................................................................................................................. 20 7.30 I 2023731 1 1. 1.1 2023724-728CFETSBISSDR72816:30 1.1.1 7.1456 7.1451 7.1265 7.1338 -0.165% USDCNY 7.1790 7.2031 7.1365 7.1645 -0.202% USDCNH 7.1672 7.1914 7.1290 7.1590 -0.114% 141.7461 141.1961 140.4265 140.7245 -0.721% 1.1118 1.1083 1.1000 1.1038 -0.718% 1.2851 1.2929 1.2827 1.2867 0.125% 101.0940 101.7510 101.0125 101.7038 0.603% CFETS 95.96 —— —— 96.65 0.719% (BIS) 100.26 —— —— 100.98 0.718% (SDR) 91.89 —— —— 92.58 0.751% iFinD 72816:307.16457.15900.202%0.114%4YCC 7.30 I 2023731 2 1.1.12023724-728 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 7YCCYCCYCC98.0099.00100.00101.00102.00103.00104.00105.00106.006.756.856.957.057.157.252023-03-312023-04-302023-05-312023-06-30: 7.30 I 2023731 3 99-103 7.30724412344731847.107.22 1.2.2 7.20 1.2.3 7.30 I 2023731 4 2. 2.1 - 7287.1338118 2.1.1 1 2 -118 1250 -775 -593 138 1684 -210 -1336 Refinitiv Bloomberg 2.2.1 2.2.2 Refinitiv Bloomberg Refinitiv Bloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 (0.150)(0.100)(0.050)0.0000.0500.1000.150(0.05)(0.04)(0.03)(0.02)(0.01)0.000.010.020.030.040.056.606.706.806.907.007.107.207.305USDCNY16:30 7.30 I 2023731 5 2.2.3 7.30 I 2023731 6 iFinD 2.2.2 2.2.4 -400.00-200.000.00200.00400.00600.00800.002021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-05:Delta 7.30 I 2023731 7 iFinD 2.2.3 2.2.5 Bloomberg 6.206.406.606.807.007.207.40-400-300-200-10001002003004005002021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-06银行结售汇差额:当月值银行代客远期净结汇:当月值即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月（右轴） 7.30 I 2023731 8 2.2.4 728NDF6.9520115USDCNY25Delta11 2.2.6NDF 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% Bloomberg iFinD 2.3 2.3.1 72823097.126720142971 -0.10000.00000.10000.20000.30000.40000.50000.60000.06000.16000.26000.36000.46000.56000.66000.76000.86001M3M6M9M1Y1D1W 7.30