商品研究晨报

期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 黄金：高位震荡 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 白银：小幅回落 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 铜：库存增加，价格调整 ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 铝：触及阶段高点回调 .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 氧化铝：低位反弹 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 锌：社库累增，价格承压 ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 铅：再生铅成本高企，支撑价格 ............................................................................................................................................... 11 镍：中间品价格坚挺，电积经济性持稳运行 ........................................................................................................................ 13 不锈钢：现实基本面偏弱，钢价承压运行 ............................................................................................................................. 13 锡：高位回落 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 工业硅：多头撤资，盘面回落为主 ........................................................................................................................................... 17 铁矿石：高位震荡反复 .................................................................................................................................................................. 19 螺纹钢：地产数据疲弱，弱势震荡 ........................................................................................................................................... 21 热轧卷板：需求走弱，弱势震荡 ............................................................................................................................................... 21 硅铁：成本估值下移，偏弱震荡 ............................................................................................................................................... 23 锰硅：板块情绪反复，价格承压 ............................................................................................................................................... 23 焦炭：情绪反复，宽幅震荡 ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 焦煤：情绪反复，宽幅震荡 ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 动力煤：企稳运行 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 27 玻璃：短线反弹难延续 中期震荡 ............................................................................................................................................. 29 PTA：短期震荡市，中期仍偏强 ................................................................................................................................................. 31 MEG：关注9-1正套 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 31 橡胶：震荡偏弱 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 沥青：高位震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 LLDPE：中期震荡市 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 39 PP: 短期偏弱 中期震荡市 ............................................................................................................................................................ 41 纸浆：宽幅震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 43 甲醇：9-1反套 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 45 尿素：现货偏弱，盘面震荡 .................................................................................