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Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) is expected to report a 12% YoY drop in net profit to AUD 1.52bn in 1H23E due to lower coal prices offsetting gradual production growth. We have downgraded our 2023E/24E earnings forecasts by 27%/29% after reducing our coal price assumptions by 15%-16%. We maintain our Buy rating as we expect a recovery in China's economy to prevent further sharp declines in seaborne coal prices. We also expect China's imports of Australian coal to accelerate following the lifting of import bans earlier this year. Despite our new earnings forecasts, the stock trades at a 21% 2023E dividend yield (assuming a 50% payout ratio) and 2.4x 2023E P/E. We expect ASPs and volumes to reverse in 2Q23E, with sales volume expected to grow 22% YoY as water storage issues improve. ASPs for both thermal and coking coal are expected to decline YoY by 30% and 33%, respectively, but perform better than the GCNewc 6000Cal benchmark (down 54%). ASP declines are expected to be less than the benchmark due to some contract pricing support. We expect 1H23E revenue to decline 6% YoY, with unit operating costs (excluding royalties) expected to remain high at AUD 98/t YoY (+15%). We forecast net profit to decline 12% YoY to AUD 1.52bn. Australian coal miners are set to benefit from China's import recovery. With China's relations with Australia improving, imports of Australian coal are gradually recovering. According to China Customs data, imports of Australian thermal coal reached 1.8mmt/3.7mmt/5.1mmt in Mar/Apr/May, accounting for 12%/22%/27% of China's total thermal coal imports. However, this is still well below the 2018 peak of 50%. We expect imports from Australia to accelerate further. Including YAL, Australian mining companies are set to benefit from potential volume growth. Key risks: (1) Further decline in coal prices; (2) Increase in unit costs; (3) Adverse weather affecting production. Summary: Yancoal
