期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 黄金:关注债务上限 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3 白银:震荡回落 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 铜:美元回升,施压价格 ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 铝:震荡区间下沿获得支撑 ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 锌:供需格局偏弱,震荡下行 ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 铅:多空交织,区间震荡 ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 镍:短期存在库存担忧情绪,中期供应压力偏高 ............................................................................................................... 13 不锈钢:市场到货资源偏少,库存边际小幅去化 ............................................................................................................... 13 锡:供给收缩预期增强 .................................................................................................................................................................. 15 工业硅:空头增仓盘面大幅回落 ............................................................................................................................................... 17 铁矿石:需求端预期坍塌,估值下挫 ...................................................................................................................................... 19 螺纹钢:需求疲弱,弱势震荡 .................................................................................................................................................... 21 热轧卷板:库存压制,偏弱震荡 ............................................................................................................................................... 21 硅铁:需求反馈不足,弱势延续 ............................................................................................................................................... 23 锰硅:供应相对过剩,偏弱震荡 ............................................................................................................................................... 23 焦炭:第九轮提降开启,承压运行 ........................................................................................................................................... 25 焦煤:需求疲弱,承压运行 ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 动力煤:港口累库延续,弱势运行 ........................................................................................................................................... 27 玻璃:短期偏弱 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 29 PTA:趋势转弱,多LU空PTA持有 ........................................................................................................................................ 31 MEG:测试4000点支撑,不排除下探3850 ........................................................................................................................ 31 橡胶:低位震荡 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 沥青:弱势运行,关注原料后续进展 ...................................................................................................................................... 37 LLDPE:趋势仍偏弱 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 39 PP: 趋势仍偏弱 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 41 纸浆:震荡运行 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 42 甲醇:短期偏弱震荡 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 44 尿素:短期偏弱,中期转为震荡式 ........................................................................................................................................... 46 苯乙烯:短期震荡 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48 纯碱:趋势偏弱 ............................................................