图表设置下载图片另存为PDF分享铁矿石日报 | 2023-05-26日评 联系人：林滋然15011950020linzr@hrrdqh.com从业资格号：F3058665投资咨询号：Z0016732【现货概述】今日铁矿石现货市场交投一般，成交一般，整体较上一日涨0-3。【市场分析】5月15日-5月21日，中国47港到港总量2291.9万吨，环比减少279.6万吨;45港到港2170吨环比减少232.8万吨。澳巴19港铁矿发运总量2502.0万吨，环比增加174.2万吨，其中澳洲发运量1838.2万吨，环比增加131.3吨，发往中国1568.5万吨，环比增加124.8万吨。巴西发运663.9万吨，环比增加42.9万吨。今天铁矿石价格继续走弱，主要由于国内国外宏观偏弱，尤其是近期热炒的城投债事件加剧了悲观情绪。因而盘面又再次交易国内复苏偏弱。宏观层面看，美债危机使得宏观层面再现阴霾，而国内经济数据也出现疲软，其中1-4月份房地产开发投资、施工面积、新开工分别同比下降6.2%、5.6%、20.6%。而5-7月份是城投债兑付的高峰期，在地产下行的周期中，城投债兑付难更加剧了市场的悲观情绪,这也给了空头继续打压盘面的理由。而微观层面上，成材端的需求的乏力无法持续支撑当期的铁水产量是核心逻辑，反应在成材端表需持续偏弱，钢价无力支撑，炼钢利润快速下滑，从而引发钢厂被动减产，加上铁矿进入发运旺季，后续供应相对充足,铁水产量⻅顶后盘面持续负反馈逻辑。在钢厂减产过程中，短流程产量较3月底退出接近50%，而⻓流程退出速度开始放缓，短期对铁矿石价格的压制开始减弱，反应到数据就是铁水产量并未大幅走低，但由于整体成交依旧偏弱，预计还将维持宽幅震荡行情。【操作建议】 普氏价格铁矿石(62p)_中国北方(CFR)(美元吨)608010012014016018020022024001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-192019202020212022202397.3597.35铁矿石(65p)_中国北方(CFR)(美元吨)8010012014016018020022024026028001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-1920192020202120222023110.35110.35铁矿石(58p)_中国北方(CFR)(美元吨)506070809010011012013014015016017001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-192019202020212022202383.983.9指标名称2023-05-252023-05-24涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌platts(58p)83.983.90105.5-21.6 platts(62p)97.3597.350133.4-36.05 platts(65p)110.35110.350157.5-47.15 普式价格数据来源：钢联，wind 铁矿石期现市场61p5PB粉(日照港)(元湿吨)5006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001-72-153-245-36-127-219-210-1111-2012-22019202020212022202375075062p5纽曼粉(日照港)(元湿吨)5006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001-72-153-245-36-127-219-210-1111-2012-22019202020212022202376776756p5超特粉(日照港)(元湿吨)3004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3002-113-164-205-267-18-69-1210-1711-222019202020212022202363063061p金布巴粉(日照港)(元湿吨)4005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001-72-153-245-36-127-219-210-1111-2012-22019202020212022202371871865p卡拉加斯粉(日照港)(元湿吨)7008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9001-72-153-245-36-127-219-210-1111-2012-220192020202120222023853853类别指标名称2023-05-252023-05-24涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌期货收盘价I01M631.5635.5-4 796-164.5 I05M612.5615-2.5 772-159.5 I09M681682.5-1.5 852-171 外矿现货价格62p5纽曼粉(日照港)(元湿吨)7677643 966-199 61p5PB粉(日照港)(元湿吨)7507473 951-201 56p5超特粉(日照港)(元湿吨)6306300751-121 61p金布巴粉(日照港)(元湿吨)7187153 846-128 65p卡拉加斯粉(日照港)(元湿吨)8538503 1157-304 国产矿价格--期货现货价格数据来源：钢联，wind 铁矿石基差类别指标名称2023-05-252023-05-24涨跌去年同期值基差铁矿01基差177.599181.196-3.597 152.018铁矿05基差196.599201.696-5.097 176.018铁矿09基差128.099134.196-6.097 96.018基差铁矿01基差-100-5005010015020025030035040045050001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-1920192020202120222023128.099128.099铁矿05基差-5005010015020025030035040045050055001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-1920192020202120222023196.599196.599铁矿09基差-100-5005010015020025030035040045050001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-1920192020202120222023128.099128.099数据来源：钢联，wind 金布巴粉_PB-200-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-20001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2120192020202120222023-32-32唐山精粉_PB20192020202120222023PB_超特粉9012015018021024027030033036039042045001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2120192020202120222023120120卡粉_PB609012015018021024027030033036039042001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2120192020202120222023103103矿石价差，跨期价差1-5跨期价差-60-40-2002040608010012014001-0205-2706-2107-1608-1009-0409-2910-3111-2512-202019202020212022202319195-9跨期价差-2002040608010012014016018020001-0201-2702-2103-1804-1305-1110-0811-0211-2712-222019202020212022202384.584.59-1跨期价差02040608010012014016018020022024001-1601-2802-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1104-2305-0805-2006-0106-1306-2507-0707-1907-3108-1208-2409-052019202020212022202349.549.5类别指标名称2023-05-252023-05-24涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌现货高中低品矿价差卡粉_PB1031030206-103 金布巴粉_PB-32-320-10573 PB_超特粉1201173 200-80 --铁矿跨期价差1-5跨期价差1920.5-1.5 24-5 5-9跨期价差-----9-1跨期价差49.5472.5 56-6.5 铁矿价差数据来源：钢联，wind 跨期价差指标名称2023-05-252023-05-24涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌7-9跨期价差5954.54.5 79-20 6-9跨期价差8280.51.5 112-30 8-9跨期价差2725.51.5 40-13 铁矿跨期价差7-9跨期价差-60-30030609012015018021024001-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1303-2704-1104-2505-1205-2606-0906-2307-0709-2110-1210-2611-0911-2312-0712-212019202020212022202359598-9跨期价差-60-40-2002040608010012014016018001-0201-1802-0302-1903-0703-2304-0904-2505-1405-3006-1507-0107-1708-0209-1810-1110-2711-1211-2812-1412-32019202020212022202327276-9跨期价差-2002040608010012014016018001-0201-1501-2802-1002-2303-0803-2104-0304-1704-3005-1605-2906-1109-2210-1210-2511-0711-2012-0312-1612-29201920202021202220238282数据来源：钢联，wind 成材利润类别指标名称2023-05-252023-05-24涨跌去年同期值现货端利润钢坯利润231.38316.924-85.544 344.967螺纹利润101.38136.924-35.544 154.967热轧利润31.3826.9244.456 64.967盘面螺纹利润prft05296.5302-5.5 519.6prft10235.552269.55 405.1盘面热卷利润prft0