低库存强基差，聚烯烃低位震荡请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明策略摘要聚烯烃新增产能集中兑现，广东石化120PE+50PP，海南炼化60PE+50PP逐步投产，3月份存量装置检修环比2月份更少，供应压力进一步抬升，短期上行驱动减弱。美元快速回调使得大宗商品有更大弹性向上的机会，也因为美元的走弱使上方进口窗口有重新打开的趋势，下方则有需求回升支撑。总体来说，短期盘面将会是震荡偏强走势。核心观点■市场分析库存方面，石化库存79万吨，较上一工作日+5.5万吨。石化库存略有增加，节前由于中游囤了不少货，需密切关注需求复苏情况。从目前看，PP中游库存正处于累库的过程当中，LL的中游库存则开始逐步见顶。基差方面，LL华东基差在-80元/吨，PP华东基差在-100元/吨，基差变化不大。生产利润及国内开工方面，PP生产利润原油制处于亏损状态。PDH制PP利润在前期大幅亏损后，近期已有所修复转为正，有利于PP产能的持续释放。LL油头法生产利润保持为正。非标价差及非标生产比例方面，HD注塑-LL价差转负，LL开工率转升，HD持续上升，近期PE开工率偏高。PP低融共聚-PP拉丝价差有所上升。进出口方面，PE和PP进口窗口皆已关闭，近几天美元的快速贬值为再次打开进口窗口提供了条件。■策略（1）单边：受美元快速下跌的影响，聚烯烃近期更偏向震荡偏强走势。（2）跨期：可考虑跨品种多LL空PP，做大两者间价差。■风险原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化。期货研究报告|聚烯烃日报2023-03-02美元快速走弱，短暂刺激盘面走好研究院能源化工组研究员潘翔0755-82767160panxiang@htfc.com从业资格号：F3023104投资咨询号：Z0013188梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421康远宁0755-23991175kangyuanning@htfc.com从业资格号：F3049404投资咨询号：Z0015842投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 聚烯烃日报丨2023/03/02请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明2/13目录策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃日度表格..................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构..................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比..............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润............................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃库存........................................................................................................................................................................................12图表表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................................5图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................