房地产行业12月数据分析：销售继续回暖 房价结构性上涨 房企对市场保持谨慎

请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 0 证券研究报告：行业研究 房地产 评级：中性 维持 销售继续回暖 房价结构性上涨 房企对市场保持谨慎 房地产行业12月数据分析 2018年1月19日 行业月报 相关研究： 投资要点： ➢ 销售：12月份一二线城市销售回暖，三四线城市销售继续保持火热；全国商品房库存继续下降，住宅库存已下降至2013年10月份水平。 ➢ 价格：12月份全国住宅销售价格结构性上涨，尤其是一二线城市价格结构性上涨，带动商品房价格上涨。 ➢ 投资：12月份土地购置、新开工、竣工数据均低于预期；房地产投资增速继续下行。在库存大幅下降和销售回暖背景下，房企补库存意愿不强，表明房地产企业对后市并不乐观。 ➢ 融资：受销售回暖影响，房企定金及预收款继续同比增长；银行贷款和自筹资金也同比两位数增长，房地产企业现金流充裕。 分析师：平海庆 执业证书编号： S0760511010003 电话：010-83496341 邮箱：pinghaiqing@sxzq.com 地址：太原市府西街69号国贸中心A座28层 北京市西城区平安里西大街中海国际中心7层 山西证券股份有限公司 http ://www.i618.com.cn 数据来源：wind资讯、山西证券研究所 行业研究|地产月报 请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 1 图表目录 1.销售：三四线销售强劲带动销售反弹 ···················································· 3 图1：全国商品房累计销售面积 ··················································································4 图2：全国商品房累计销售金额 ··················································································4 图3：全国商品房单月销售面积 ··················································································4 图4：全国商品房单月销售金额 ··················································································4 图5：30城市销售面积 ·····························································································5 图6：一线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图7：二线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图8：三线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图9：TOP10房企销售面积·························································································6 图10：TOP10房企销售金额 ·······················································································6 图11：TOP10房企销售增速 ·······················································································6 图12：TOP10房企销售占比 ·······················································································6 图13：全国商品房待售面积·······················································································7 图14：全国商品住宅待售面积 ····················································································7 2.价格：全国房价环比继续下行 ····························································· 8 图15：全国商品房累计销售均价 ·················································································9 图16：全国商品房单月销售均价 ·················································································9 图17：全国商品住宅累计销售均价 ··············································································9 图18：全国商品住宅单月销售均价 ··············································································9 图19：TOP10房企销售均价 ····················································································· 10 3.投资：住宅补库存力度加大 投资增速反弹 ·········································· 11 图20：商品房累计新开工面积 ·················································································· 12 图21：商品房单月新开工面积 ·················································································· 12 图22：住宅累计新开工面积····················································································· 12 图23：住宅单月新开工面积····················································································· 12 图24：商品房累计竣工面积····················································································· 13 图25：商品房单月竣工面积····················································································· 13 行业研究|地产月报 请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 2 图26：住宅累计竣工面积 ······················································································· 13 图27：住宅单月竣工面积 ······················································································· 13 图28：商品房正在施工面积····················································································· 14 图29：住宅正在施工面积 ······················································································· 14 图30：房地产累计投资额 ······················································································· 14 图31：房地产单月投资额 ······················································································· 14 图32：住宅累计投资额 ·························································································· 15 图33：住宅单月投资额 ·························································································· 15 图34：全国房地产企业累计土地购置面积···································································· 15 图35：全国房地产企业单月土地购置面积···································································· 15 图36：全国房地产企业土地累计成交额 ······································································ 16 图37：全国房地产企业土地单月成交额 ············································