房地产行业1~2月数据分析：三四线销售火爆，房企资金充裕对市场保持谨慎
本公司或其关联机构在法律许可情况下可能持有或交易本报告提到的上市公司所发行的证券或投资标的，还可能为或争取为这些公司提供投资银行或财务顾问服务。本公司在知晓范围内履行披露义务。客户可索取有关披露资料sxzqyjfzb@i618.com.cn。客户应全面理解本报告结尾处的"免责声明"。 证券研究报告：行业研究 房地产 评级：中性 维持 三四线销售火爆 房企资金充裕对市场保持谨慎 房地产行业1-2月数据分析 2018年3月15日 行业月报 相关研究： 投资要点： ➢ 销售：1-2月全国商品房和商品住宅销售继续保持同比增长，商品房销售面积增速高于商品住宅，表明商业用房和写字楼销售好于住宅；但商品房销售金额增速低于商品住宅，表明商品住宅销售价格上涨幅度高于商业用房和写字楼；城市方面，30个大中城市1-2月份商品房销售面积同比下降12.23%，与全国销售数据相背离，表明三四线城市商品房销售继续火爆；全国商品房库存已下降2014年中水平，商品住宅库存已下降至2013年底水平，大多数城市已无去库存压力。 ➢ 价格：1-2月，由于去库存压力下降和房价涨幅趋缓，各地房地产调控压力下降，房地产市场销售结构出现变化，高端住房销售占比有所上升，导致全国商品房和住宅销售均价大幅上涨。 ➢ 投资：1-2月房地产和住宅投资增速止跌反弹，增速明显高于开工和复工，主要原因为水泥和钢材等主要建筑材料价格上涨导致单位建筑安装成本上升，总体来看市场仍比较低迷。 ➢ 融资：1-2月份，银行对个人按揭贷款仍比较严厉，房企由于资金充裕对银行贷款需求下降，对后市也相对谨慎。房企总投资规模与融资规模之比为45.15%，房地产企业没有资金压力。 分析师：平海庆 执业证书编号： S0760511010003 电话：010-83496341 邮箱：pinghaiqing@sxzq.com 地址：太原市府西街69号国贸中心A座28层 北京市西城区平安里西大街中海国际中心7层 山西证券股份有限公司 http ://www.i618.com.cn 数据来源：wind资讯、山西证券研究所 行业研究|地产月报 请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 1 图表目录 1.销售：三四线销售强劲带动销售反弹 ···················································· 3 图1：全国商品房累计销售面积 ··················································································4 图2：全国商品房累计销售金额 ··················································································4 图3：全国商品房单月销售面积 ··················································································4 图4：全国商品房单月销售金额 ··················································································4 图5：30城市销售面积 ·····························································································5 图6：一线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图7：二线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图8：三线城市销售面积 ···························································································5 图9：TOP10房企销售面积·························································································6 图10：TOP10房企销售金额 ·······················································································6 图11：TOP10房企销售增速 ·······················································································6 图12：TOP10房企销售占比 ·······················································································6 图13：全国商品房待售面积·······················································································7 图14：全国商品住宅待售面积 ····················································································7 2.价格：全国房价环比继续下行 ····························································· 8 图15：全国商品房累计销售均价 ·················································································9 图16：全国商品房单月销售均价 ·················································································9 图17：全国商品住宅累计销售均价 ··············································································9 图18：全国商品住宅单月销售均价 ··············································································9 图19：TOP10房企销售均价 ····················································································· 10 3.投资：住宅补库存力度加大 投资增速反弹 ·········································· 11 图20：商品房累计新开工面积 ·················································································· 12 图21：商品房单月新开工面积 ·················································································· 12 图22：住宅累计新开工面积····················································································· 12 图23：住宅单月新开工面积····················································································· 12 图24：商品房累计竣工面积····················································································· 13 图25：商品房单月竣工面积····················································································· 13 行业研究|地产月报 请参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 2 图26：住宅累计竣工面积 ······················································································· 13 图27：住宅单月竣工面积 ······················································································· 13 图28：商品房正在施工面积····················································································· 14 图29：住宅正在施工面积 ······················································································· 14 图30：房地产累计投资额 ······················································································· 14 图31：房地产单月投资额 ······················································································· 14 图32：住宅累计投资额 ·························································································· 15 图33：住宅单月投资额 ·························································································· 15 图34：全国房地产企业累计土地购置面积···································································
