融资方案已反映至股价,限售股解禁可望提供长期买点

ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ03͡30͟ 1 Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ็ய۵જၗ f ̍થᅙҖ (01398.HK/1398 HK) Ꮙྤ͞९̏ͅߍҌ۵ᆊĂࢨ઴۵ྋ༰Ξ୕೩ܜֻഇ෴ᕇ HK$5.75 !޺ᆧ!޺ჯ ̳Φ޵ణ! 1ౘኣᆯ（Coordinator） 2 86.21.6125.8649 1͛຅഑ 2 852.2878.4401 3 samson.man@kgia.com Ŝ ̚ܜഇ෷ഠΚͧព඾೩̿ Ŝ Ꮙྤ͞९̏ͅߍҌ۵ᆊ Ŝ ࢨ઴۵ྋ༰૲ܜֽഇ෴ᕇ ̚ܜഇ෷ഠΚͧព඾೩̿ ଀ৈع߆ٺ᎕ໂੑ߆߆ඉĂ̍થᅙҖ̚ܜഇ̳Φ෷ഠΚͧځពᆧΐĂΗѐᒖͧăБѐТͧЧ೩̿20.7࣎Ѻ̶ᕇ׶18.8࣎Ѻ̶ᕇć఼Ꮆ࿰ഇ૲જхഠ߿ഇ̼ᔌ๕ؼᜈĂ̳Φ߿ഇхഠ׶࣎ˠ߿ഇхഠΚхഠͧࢦЧ೩̿1.2࣎Ѻ̶ᕇ׶0.3࣎Ѻ̶ᕇĂтဦ ̆Ą ဦ ̆Ĉ̚ܜഇ̳Φᙷ෷ഠΚͧځពᆧΐ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ć౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ஐिमᘦՎа̿ ߹જّќღдྤܛξಞ౵А଀זវனĂхيٴاٴТຽϠिྤயќৈதΗѐᒖͧ೩̿11BPĂລ੨෷ഠඕၹԼචĞт˯ࢗĂ̚ܜഇ෷ഠᆧΐğĂͽ̈́хഠ߿ഇ̼͔ᅳࢍि࢑ๅјώத˭ࢫĂஐिमΗѐᒖͧ˯Җ1BPĂтဦ˟Ą ဦ˟Ĉஐिम˯Җ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ć౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ྤயݡኳᚶᜈԼච ̙։෷ഠத׶̙։෷ഠዶᗝӮ˭ࢫĂ̙։෷ഠதࢫҌ1.54%Ăᒖͧ˭ࢫ14BPć̙։෷ഠዶᗝ884.7ᆆ̮Ăᒖͧഴ͌50.7ᆆ̮ĂтဦˬĄ ဦˬĈྤயݡኳ޺ᜈԼච ̙։෷ഠዶᗝĂȈᆆˠϔ။Ğνคğć̙։෷ഠதĂѺ̶ͧĞΠคğ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ć౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந Ꮙྤ͞९̏ૄῴߍҌ۵ᆊ ѐಡ൴ܑົ̍થᅙҖΥё̳ӘĈᑢдA۵ξಞ̳ฟ൴Җ̙෹࿅250ᆆ̮A۵ΞᖼๅĂH۵ξಞ൴Җ̙෹࿅H۵۵ώ20%۞۵ЊĂྤܛБొϡٺྃ·ྤܛώĂώѨᏉྤԆјޢĂ̍થᅙҖ࿰ࢍྤώ·֖த12%ͽ˯Ăࣧ݋˯Ϗֽˬѐ̙Гᅮࢋ˟৺ξಞᏉྤĄ ԧࣇᄮࠎ̍થᅙҖѩѨ۞Ꮙྤ͞९๒ྤᇴᗝ෹ͼ࿰ഇĂԧࣇീზĂ่൴Җ250ᆆΞᖼๅӈΞܲᙋϏֽˬѐྤώத֖·12%ͽ˯Ğ઄నࢲᐍΐᝋྤய׶෷ഠπӮዶᗝϏˬѐֽCAGRࠎӮ15%νΠğĄтଳϡH۵๒ྤ˯ࢨĂ݋2010-2012ѐྤώ·֖தΞ̶Ҿ྿ז12.94%ă12.64%׶12.55%ĂтဦαĂᅈ෹࿅Ⴞგᆸ11.5%۞౵ҲࢋՐĄၟҌ2009ѐغ̍થᅙҖྤώ·֖த12.36%Ăࠎ̂ݭᅙҖ̝ࢵĂ఺૟ࠎ̍થᅙҖ঻˭Հкፆү۩มĂᏴፄ౵ָॡมෛ඄ᏉྤĄ ԧࣇ઄నͽ̳Ә͟ќሹᆊ̶Ҿ޷H۵۵ώᆧ൴5%ă10%ă15%׶20%Ğ20%ࠎ̳Ә͞९۞˯ࢨğĂ݋၆ஐӀማᝊᓠ6.1%-24.6%Ă၆ᑕ2010ѐPB2.10X-1.96XĄ 02040608010012020081Q092Q093Q0920091.01.52.02.5̙։෷ഠ̙։෷ഠதπӮќৈத (% )2 0082Q09200 9HOHYOYπӮјώத (% )2 008 2Q09 20 09HOHYOYϠिྤயๅ࢑िࢍމ͗෷ഠ̈́ါഠ7.075.475.21(0.26)(1.86)хഠ2.171.761.60(0.16)(0.57)׎̚Ĉ̳Φᙷ෷ഠ7.236.065.76(0.30)(1.47)׎̚Ĉ̳Φؠഇхഠ3.422.742.45(0.29)(0.97)ைፂ෭ன6.742.422.32(0.10)(4.42)̳Φ߿ഇхഠ1.010.620.630.01(0.38)࣎ˠ෷ഠ7.135.154.93(0.22)(2.20)࣎ˠؠഇхഠ3.623.022.79(0.23)(0.83)ဩγ̈́׎΁4.573.692.78(0.91)(1.79)࣎ˠ߿ഇхഠ0.590.360.360.00(0.23)хيٴδҖഠี1.801.491.540.05(0.26)ˢاٴ΁х׎Тຽ̈́1.791.381.30(0.08)(0.49)΁׎Тຽ̈́يٴاٴх3.230.981.090.11(2.14)ᑕ;Ѩ৺ๅד3.553.273.370.10(0.18)ϠिྤயπӮќৈத4.943.863.74(0.12)(1.20)ࢍि࢑ๅπӮјώத2.141.731.58(0 .15)(0 . 5 6)ஐिम2.952.252.2 60 .0 1(0.69)ЧีΚ෷ഠͧ (%)200 82Q092 009Ηѐᒖͧ+/-Ѻ̶ͧБѐТͧ+/-Ѻ̶ͧЧีΚхഠͧ (%)20 08 2Q09 2009Ηѐᒖͧ+/-Ѻ̶ͧБѐТͧ+/-Ѻ̶̳ͧΦᙷ෷ഠ72.269.469.50.1(2.7)̳Φؠഇ16.617.917.8(0.2)1.1ܜ̚Ĉ̚׎ഇ48.346.467.220.718.8̳Φ߿ഇ33.130.832.01.2(1.1)ൺഇ23.923.03.7(19.3)(20.2)̳Φхഠ̈ࢍ49.748.749.81.10.1ைፂ෭ன5.39.98.6(1.3)3.3࣎ˠؠഇ30.833.131.5(1.5)0.7࣎ˠ෷ഠ18.417.518.51.00.1࣎ˠ߿ഇ17.416.616.90.3(0.5)ဩγ̈́׎΁4.13.23.40.2(0.7)࣎ˠхഠ̈ࢍ48.249.748.4(1.3)0.2 ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ03͡30͟ 2 Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ็ய۵જၗ f ဦαĈA۵250ᆆˠϔ။Ξᖼๅ+H۵Ꮙྤୂຏ̶ّژ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ă౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ҋ̍થᅙҖH۵˯ξͽֽPBࠎӮࣃ2.1XĂϫ۵݈ᆊ၆ᑕ2010ѐPB2.2X۞ؠგநᆸన޷ܮĂӈH۵౵̂ᏉྤܛᗝĂӈ20%۞H۵۵ώᆧ൴Ăංᛖޢ2010ѐPB2.0XĂҤࣃЪநĄ ဦ̣Ĉ޷̳Ә͞९౵̂ᆧ൴ܛᗝࢍზĂPBҤࣃЪந PBĂࢺ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ༰઴۵ྋ༰ٕ૟૲ֽెҲӛৼ፟ົ ൴Ҷົ̚Ă̍થᅙҖ཭ܑܜְϯĂ੼஽၆ٺ̍થᅙҖ۞঻̂ొ֭ܲĂܼഇЪүᙯܜ޺ܲᙸຍ֭႕ຍĂזԸྤຏ̶̍થᅙҖ۞۵޺Ą੼஽޺ѣϫ޺݈ѣ̍થᅙҖ3.9%۞۵ЊĂЪࢍ131.8ᆆ۵Ă2010ѐ4͡28͟ࠎྋ༰͟Ą઄న੼஽̶Ҿ΍઴ϫ޺݈ٙ۞۵Њ۞20%-100%ĂH۵ᚯቅ૟̶Ҿᆧΐ3.2%-15.9%Ăྋ༰۵٦઴ٕ૟ගԸྤ۰૲ֽెҲӛৼ۞፟ົĄ ဦ̱Ĉ༰઴۵ྋ༰၆H۵ᚯቅࢬᑅ˧̶ژ ොĈ1.੼஽޺ѣ۵Њ13,181Ѻ༱۵ 2.̍થᅙҖᓁ۵ώ3.90% 3. 2010ѐ4͡28͟༰઴ഇ႕ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ă౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந Ըྤޙᛉ ԧࣇᄮࠎᏉྤ͞९̏ૄῴߍҌ۵ᆊĂЪந۞ܫ෷ᆧిͽ̈́ᘦՎ˯Җ۞ஐिमѣӀஐӀማᆧܜШ˯Ğ࿰Ҥ2010ѐஐӀማYOY20.7%ğĂ޺ᜈԼච۞ྤயݡኳĂͽ̈́࠹၆ྵҲ۞Ҥࣃͪ໤ĂԧࣇࢦϦ̍થᅙҖĶᆧ޺ķ̝ԸྤෞඈĂྋ༰۵٦઴ٕ૟ගԸྤ۰૲ֽెҲӛৼ۞፟ົĂޙᛉԸྤ۰૜̷ᙯڦĄ Ҍ12͡31͟͹ᒉќˢ ஐӀማ Տ۵ќৈEPS தܜᆧՏ۵ஐྤயBVPSதܜᆧ(Rmb mn)(Rmb mn)(Rmb)(% YoY)(Rmb)(% YoY)2008A310,195111,2260.33037.51.81611.62009F309,411129,3960.39018.22.03311.92010F369,982156,1440.46118.22.33915.12011F432,053178,2680.53015.02.59711.0Ҍ12͡31͟ξ࠳த ξஐதP/CEࡓӀаಡத ஐྤώаಡத ஐྤயаಡத(X)(X)(X)(%)(%)(%)2008A15.32.89.22.31.219.32009F12.92.58.93.01.220.12010F10.92.27.44.11.221.32011F9.51.96.34.61.121.5யຽ3.6 - 76.56477.6/61,55914.1334,019 67 320,83812.4 35.439.0 316.21.6 -10.3; -2.9; 60.6164.4 -5.7; -2.8; 6.252׹۵ᆊ (੼\Ҳ) :12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ (̮)ξࣃ (Ȉᆆ̮/ܛ࡚Ȉᆆ) :ᅙҖ˯̿/˭฀۩ม (%)ᓁ۵ώ ĞѺ༱۵ğ:˯̿۩มଵЩ (%)߹఼۵ώ (Ѻ༱۵) :ྤώ·֖த (%) - 12/09Ҥ (%)ᗼ૳໤౯Κᓁيٴഠͧத - 12/09Ҥ(%)னܑ၆࠹%Ğ3, 6, 12࣎͡ğڌ۵ࢋ͹ (%):Cost/income ͧத (%) - 12/09Ҥ (%)3࣎͡πӮјΣณ ĞѺ༱۵ğ:࿈ഇيٴഠͧத (%) - 12/09Ҥ (%)۵ᆊܑன%Ğ3, 6, 12࣎͡ğ̚δ?Ըྤܛ1.01.52.02.53.0Nov-07May-08Oct-08Apr-09Sep-09Mar-10̍થᅙҖH۵˯ξͽֽĂPBӮࣃ2.1xĂ઄నͽH۵20%۵ώᆧ൴Ğ౵̂ᆧ൴ᗝğĂᝊᓠޢ၆ᑕ2010ѐPB2.0X΍઴ּͧĞ%۵ᇴيٴğᛖ (Ѻ༱۵)H۵ᚯቅᆧΐĞ%ğᅮX͇ӛќາᆧᚯቅ202,6363.29405,2726.317607,9099.5268010,54512.73510013,18115.944A334,019Ѻ༱۵B4,638Ѻ༱۵C=A+ B338,657Ѻ༱۵2010ѐ3͡25͟D5.70പ။઄నͽ˯ࢗќሹᆊᆧ൴னѣ޷H۵۵ώX%ᆧ൴൴Җ۵ᇴ(Ѻ༱۵)Ꮙྤᗝ(Ѻ༱ˠϔ။)ᆧ൴ޢᓁ۵ώ (Ѻ༱)ᆧ൴ጱ۵࡭ώᆧΐ(%)2 010 F 20 11F201 2F 2 010ѐPE(ࢺ)20 10ѐPB(ࢺ)EF=C+EG=F/C-154,15320,801359,4586.112.7512.5612.4811.12.10108,30641,601380,25912.312.8112.5912.5011.22.051512,45962,402401,05918.412.8712.6112.5211.32.0020Ğ˯ࢨğ16,61283,203421,86024.61 2.9412 .6 412.5511.51.96ྃ·ྤώࢍܛ൪ௐ ̆ՎĈ൴ҖΞᖼๅྃ·ྤώࢍܛ൪ௐ˟ՎĈ઄న250ᆆΞᖼๅͽ̳Ә͟Ğ2010ѐ3͡25͟ğќሹᆊH۵൴ҖΞᖼๅ݈ᓁ۵ώΞᖼๅҖᝋᆧΐ۞۵ЊᇴҖᝋޢ̍થᅙҖᓁ۵ώCARĞ%ğ ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ03͡30͟ 3 Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ౶ૄᙋדะဥঔγᒉྻፂᕇ གྷᒉፂᕇ ̂̚රડ έ៉ KGI Asia˯ঔ΃ܑ఍Ĉ ˯ঔξ΅ᔷྮ317ཱི2502-2504ވ ฎ߆በཱི:200051 KGI Asiaஎв΃ܑ఍Ĉ எвξᘲസડᚗщݑྮ2014ཱིॎຽ̂ሁAळ24D1 ฎ߆በཱི:518008 KGI౶ૄᙋ۵דЊѣࢨ̳Φ 104ᄂΔξځͪྮ700ཱི ࿪ྖ 886.2.2181.8888 ็ৌ 886.2.8501.1691 ࢶപ ঍઼ ะဥ߷