信达黑色产业链数据周报：钢厂复产进度缓慢

信达黑色产业链数据周报钢厂复产进度缓慢2016年3月20日www.cindaqh.com1 2本周黑色产业链要点1、钢材供给：全国高炉开工率没有提升，本周全国77.35，下降0.14；河北84.76，下降1.27；日均产量看，2月下旬全国日均204万吨，下降1.6，去年同期为211万吨需求：沪终端螺纹采购量达到20543吨，山东建材钢厂日成交在6-7万吨，现货市场成交好转利润：钢厂利润继续恢复，全国盈利钢厂比例达到55%，河北盈利测算达到211元/吨。库存：重点钢厂钢材库存下降83万吨，贸易商螺纹钢库存下降25万吨现货：上海价格2230，折算盘面2300操作建议：低开工和库存下，下游开工和基建发力，市场对后市预期较好，短期震荡偏强，下方支撑2100附近 32、铁矿供给：澳洲发运一般，巴西由于港口检修发运下降较大，短期到港量数据压力不大。内矿有所恢复，但仍不及去年同期库存：主要港口铁矿石库存为9750万吨，增加55万吨；钢厂库存可用天数24天，仍有补库空间需求：高炉开工平稳，预计仍有上行空间现货：普氏57，港口420，折合干吨在465左右成本端：四大矿山到港成本区间30-35美金；中小矿山集中在40-50美金；汇率：美元走弱，人民币汇率6.46，澳元0.76操作：矿山短期供应没有恢复，钢厂利润好转对矿价形成支撑，但期现价差和绝对价格考虑，当前价格可操作性差，建议观望或做多，9月支撑在390；后期关注港口库存、外矿发运和内矿复产 43、焦炭、焦煤供给：总体供应稳定，短期焦化厂开工率变化不大。库存：焦炭和焦煤港口库存下降，处于偏低位置。焦化厂库存继续下滑，焦煤矿焦煤库存继续下滑需求：高炉开工稳定，预计后期有上行空间利润：随着化产价格上升，焦化厂亏损有所减轻，达到盈亏平衡仓单：焦炭730左右，焦煤610-630操作：钢厂复产和低库存背景下，走势偏强，现货继续上调，逢低买多为主，焦炭5月支撑750，焦煤5月支撑620 5现货价格和价差本周市场继续走强。上海螺纹理计价格在2230，较上周五回落40，天津螺纹过磅2200期货维持贴水结构，期货5月贴水现货110-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5002009-03-272009-07-272009-11-272010-03-272010-07-272010-11-272011-03-272011-07-272011-11-272012-03-272012-07-272012-11-272013-03-272013-07-272013-11-272014-03-272014-07-272014-11-272015-03-272015-07-272015-11-27期现价差：上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5002011-01-052011-03-052011-05-052011-07-052011-09-052011-11-052012-01-052012-03-052012-05-052012-07-052012-09-052012-11-052013-01-052013-03-052013-05-052013-07-052013-09-052013-11-052014-01-052014-03-052014-05-052014-07-052014-09-052014-11-052015-01-052015-03-052015-05-052015-07-052015-09-052015-11-05价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海 6钢厂螺纹生产利润*螺纹生产利润211（当期测算），周内盈利有所反弹，同比变化不大*本周全国盈利钢厂占55.83%，不变；河北63%，上涨5.5%。-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011-01-042011-04-042011-07-042011-10-042012-01-042012-04-042012-07-042012-10-042013-01-042013-04-042013-07-042013-10-042014-01-042014-04-042014-07-042014-10-042015-01-042015-04-042015-07-042015-10-042016-01-04螺纹钢生产利润0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.002012-08-032013-08-032014-08-032015-08-03盈利钢厂:全国盈利钢厂:河北 7供给中钢协数据显示，2月下旬重点企业粗钢日均产量159万吨，环比2.34%，去年同期177万吨。全国204万吨，回落1.6，去年同期211。*截止3月18日，全国高炉开工率77.35%，下降0.14%，产能利用率83.09，上涨0.29河北高炉开工率84.76%，下降1.27。整体仍偏低-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1001101201301401501601701801902010-08-102010-12-102011-04-102011-08-102011-12-102012-04-102012-08-102012-12-102013-04-102013-08-102013-12-102014-04-102014-08-102014-12-102015-04-102015-08-102015-12-10日均产量:粗钢:重点企业(旬)同比增长7075808590951002013-07-122013-08-122013-09-122013-10-122013-11-122013-12-122014-01-122014-02-122014-03-122014-04-122014-05-122014-06-122014-07-122014-08-122014-09-122014-10-122014-11-122014-12-122015-01-122015-02-122015-03-122015-04-122015-05-122015-06-122015-07-122015-08-122015-09-122015-10-122015-11-122015-12-122016-01-122016-02-12高炉开工率:全国高炉开工率:河北 82月下旬，重点企业钢材库存1379万吨，环比下降83万吨，同比降-19%。钢厂库存-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%4006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002011-01-102011-03-102011-05-102011-07-102011-09-102011-11-102012-01-102012-03-102012-05-102012-07-102012-09-102012-11-102013-01-102013-03-102013-05-102013-07-102013-09-102013-11-102014-01-102014-03-102014-05-102014-07-102014-09-102014-11-102015-01-102015-03-102015-05-102015-07-102015-09-102015-11-102016-01-10库存:钢材:重点企业(旬)同比增速 9库存：螺纹社会库存和仓单*3月18日，螺纹社会库存594万吨，减少25万吨。热卷库存236万吨，减少2.75万吨*3月18日螺纹钢仓单26131吨,略有下滑。-60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 -10,00010,00030,00050,00070,00090,000110,000130,000150,0002013-11-012014-01-012014-03-012014-05-012014-07-012014-09-012014-11-012015-01-012015-03-012015-05-012015-07-012015-09-012015-11-012016-01-012016-03-01库存期货:螺纹钢增减0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.000.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.00库存:螺纹钢(含上海全部仓库)库存:热卷(板) 10*3月18日当周，上海线螺采购量20456吨，下游采购较好需求*2月出口钢材811万吨，同比增加4%，环比减少163。0500010000150002000025000300003500020140214201403212014042520140530201407042014080820140912201410172014112120141226201501302015031320150417201505222015062620150731201509062015101620151120201512252016012920160311螺纹采购量-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02004006008001,0001,2002013-012013-032013-052013-072013-092013-112014-012014-032014-052014-072014-092014-112015-012015-032015-052015-072015-092015-112016-01出口数量:钢材:当月值钢材出口同比增长 11需求*2月固定资产投资完成额累计38008万亿，同比增长10.2%，同比增速有所企稳。2月房地产开发投资完成额累计9052亿元，同比增长3%，同比企稳，有所弱势反弹0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.000.00100,000.00200,000.00300,000.00400,000.00500,000.00600,000.002006-022006-102007-062008-022008-102009-062010-022010-102011-062012-022012-102013-062014-022014-102015-062016-02固定资产投资完成额:累计值固定资产投资完成额:累计同比0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.000.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.002006-022006-102007-062008-022008-102009-062010-022010-102011-062012-022012-102013-062014-022014-102015-062016-02房地产开发投资完成额:累计值房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比 12购置土地面积*2月本年购置土地面积累计2236万平方，同比-19.4%，房企拿地意愿低。1-12月待开发土地面积累计36638万平方，同比增长-13%，增速持续回落。-50.00-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.000.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.002006-022006-092007-042007-112008-062009-012009-082010-03