豆类一周集萃：供需报告利空，粕类破位下行

一周集萃一周集萃一周集萃一周集萃豆类豆类豆类豆类2012012012015555年年年年1111月月月月12121212日日日日----1111月月月月16161616日日日日研究所秦海垠2015-1-18(8620)22139800│www.gzf2010.com.cn 2供需报告利空，粕类破位下行一、宏观经济美国联邦储备委员会14日发布的全国经济形势调查报告说，2014年11月至12月内美联储下属12家地区储备银行管辖的区域保持“适度”或“温和”增长，但是油价下跌使主要石油产区受到影响。与此前的报告相比，这次不如前期乐观。而周度的初请失业金人数31.6万创4个月新高，对就业市场近期持续良好带来一个小的挫折。欧洲市场方面，成为近期国际市场关注焦点。一方面卢布再度快速贬值，俄国央行外汇储备迅速流失。另一方面，市场预期欧洲央行的QE政策即将开始，会对外汇市场形成重大影响。为此，瑞士央行宣布实施3年之久的1.20瑞郎兑1欧元的汇率上限政策，导致瑞郎对欧元一夜之间大幅升值超过30%。国内当周股票市场先抑后扬，市场态势继续呈现欣欣向荣的状态。周初国内证监会对保险公司对证券公司提供资金进行两融业务做了调查，同时宣布展开股指期权交易试点，短期对国内市场形成一定负面影响，但此后市场再度将关注焦点集中在银行、地产等权重板块，市场迎来强劲反弹。二、产业状况1、豆类一周现货价格本周全国大豆均价为3800元/吨，与上周相比再度小幅走低。短期国内市场呈现一定市场压力，一方面进口大豆到港逐渐增多，另一方面国内国产大豆继续弱势格局。。图2：全国豆粕现货均价 33,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 08-02-1408-04-1408-06-1408-08-1408-10-1408-12-1409-02-1409-04-1409-06-1409-08-1409-10-1409-12-1410-02-1410-04-1410-06-1410-08-1410-10-1410-12-1411-02-1411-04-1411-06-1411-08-1411-10-1411-12-1412-02-1412-04-1412-06-1412-08-1412-10-1412-12-1413-02-1413-04-1413-06-1413-08-1413-10-1413-12-1414-02-1414-04-1414-06-1414-08-1414-10-1414-12-14全国大豆现货均价(元/吨)数据来源：Wind数据当周，全国豆粕现货市场均价为3210元/吨，与之前一周相比继续走低。冬季养殖市场较为低迷，特别是生猪存栏量持续下降使得饲料需求放缓，加之油厂大豆压榨有一定利润，导致现货市场呈现供大于求的状况。图2：全国豆粕现货均价2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10-01-0410-03-0410-05-0410-07-0410-09-0410-11-0411-01-0411-03-0411-05-0411-07-0411-09-0411-11-0412-01-0412-03-0412-05-0412-07-0412-09-0412-11-0413-01-0413-03-0413-05-0413-07-0413-09-0413-11-0414-01-0414-03-0414-05-0414-07-0414-09-0414-11-0415-01-04全国豆粕现货均价(元/吨)数据来源：Wind数据豆油全国均价在5763元/吨，现货价格近期迎来反弹。东南亚洪水导致油脂市场供应偏紧，加上季节性的旺季需求，使得现货市场价格企稳。图3：全国一级豆油现货均价 45500 6500 7500 8500 9500 10500 11500 10-01-0410-03-0410-05-0410-07-0410-09-0410-11-0411-01-0411-03-0411-05-0411-07-0411-09-0411-11-0412-01-0412-03-0412-05-0412-07-0412-09-0412-11-0413-01-0413-03-0413-05-0413-07-0413-09-0413-11-0414-01-0414-03-0414-05-0414-07-0414-09-0414-11-0415-01-04全国一级豆油现货均价(元/吨) 数据来源：Wind数据3、一周海运费情况波罗的海干散货指数在当周末报749，延续之前的跌势，大宗商品市场寒冬导致海运市场需求较为低迷，目前价位基本处于2009年以来历史低位附近。图4：波罗的海干散货指数0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 09-01-0209-04-0209-07-0209-10-0210-01-0210-04-0210-07-0210-10-0211-01-0211-04-0211-07-0211-10-0212-01-0212-04-0212-07-0212-10-0213-01-0213-04-0213-07-0213-10-0214-01-0214-04-0214-07-0214-10-0215-01-02数据来源：Wind数据4、港口库存状况截止至当周周末，国内进口大豆港口库存为516万吨，与上周相比有一定回升，随着近期大豆集中到港，港口库存上升速度较快，市场面临一定大豆库存压力。图5：近年度大豆港口库存情况 5近年度大豆港口库存情况（吨）3,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,00001-0202-0203-0204-0205-0206-0207-0208-0209-0210-0211-0212-022011年2012年2013年2014年2015年数据来源：Wind数据5、养殖市场情况截止至1月9日，我国22个省市生猪平均价位13.15元/公斤。截止至12月31日，全国主要大中城市猪粮比价为5.6:1。国内生猪市场价格在近期罕见地见到价格反弹，应该是与春节前的腊肉需求有关，预料后期春节因素将会继续影响生猪价格回升。图6：22个省市生猪平均价22个省市生猪平均价（元/公斤）5.007.009.0011.0013.0015.0017.0019.0021.0009-06-1209-08-1209-10-1209-12-1210-02-1210-04-1210-06-1210-08-1210-10-1210-12-1211-02-1211-04-1211-06-1211-08-1211-10-1211-12-1212-02-1212-04-1212-06-1212-08-1212-10-1212-12-1213-02-1213-04-1213-06-1213-08-1213-10-1213-12-1214-02-1214-04-1214-06-1214-08-1214-10-1214-12-12数据来源：Wind数据图7：全国大中城市猪粮比价 6全国大中城市猪粮比价3.004.005.006.007.008.009.0009-06-0309-08-0309-10-0309-12-0310-02-0310-04-0310-06-0310-08-0310-10-0310-12-0311-02-0311-04-0311-06-0311-08-0311-10-0311-12-0312-02-0312-04-0312-06-0312-08-0312-10-0312-12-0313-02-0313-04-0313-06-0313-08-0313-10-0313-12-0314-02-0314-04-0314-06-0314-08-0314-10-0314-12-03数据来源：Wind数据三、盘面分析1、仓单情况截止当周末，大豆注册仓单量为19694手；豆粕注册仓报6020手；豆油注册仓单为8656手。图8：大连大豆注册仓单与豆一指数大连大豆注册仓单与豆一指数05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00010-10-1110-11-1110-12-1111-01-1111-02-1111-03-1111-04-1111-05-1111-06-1111-07-1111-08-1111-09-1111-10-1111-11-1111-12-1112-01-1112-02-1112-03-1112-04-1112-05-1112-06-1112-07-1112-08-1112-09-1112-10-1112-11-1112-12-1113-01-1113-02-1113-03-1113-04-1113-05-1113-06-1113-07-1113-08-1113-09-1113-10-1113-11-1113-12-1114-01-1114-02-1114-03-1114-04-1114-05-1114-06-1114-07-1114-08-1114-09-1114-10-1114-11-1114-12-1115-01-114000420044004600480050005200大豆注册仓单量豆一指数数据来源：文华财经图9：大连豆粕注册仓单与豆粕指数 7大连豆粕注册仓单量与豆粕指数02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00010-10-1110-11-1010-12-1011-01-0911-02-0811-03-1011-04-0911-05-0911-06-0811-07-0811-08-0711-09-0611-10-0611-11-0511-12-0512-01-0412-02-0312-03-0412-04-0312-05-0312-06-0212-07-0212-08-0112-08-3112-09-3012-10-3012-11-2912-12-2913-01-2813-02-2713-03-2913-04-2813-05-2813-06-2713-07-2713-08-2613-09-2513-10-2513-11-2413-12-2414-01-2314-02-2214-03-2414-04-2314-05-2314-06-2214-07-2214-08-2114-09-2014-10-2014-11-1914-12-192500270029003100330035003700390041004300豆粕注册仓单量豆粕指数数据来源：文华财经图10：大连豆油注册仓单与豆油指数大连豆油仓单与豆油指数02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00010-10-1110-11-1110-12-1111-01-1111-02-1111-03-1111-04-1111-05-1111-06-1111-07-1111-08-1111-09-1111-10-1111-11-1111-12-1112-01-1112-02-1112-03-1112-04-1112-05-1112-06-1112-07-1112-08-1112-09-1112-10-1112-11-1112-12-1113-01-1113-02-1113-03-1113-04-1113-05-1113-06-1113-07-1113-08-1113-09-1113-10-1113-11-1113-12-1114-01-1114-02-1114-03-1114-04-1114-05-1114-06-1114-07-1114-08-1114-09-1114-10-1114-11-1114-12-1115-01-1150006000700080009000100001100012000豆油注册仓单量豆油指数数据来源：文华财经2、持仓情况截止至周末，豆一指数为4486，持