欧洲大陆SMiDs营销幻灯片研究报告

Marketing Slides -Continental European SMiDs Coverage Overview Authors olivia.pulvermacher@db.com+4969910-31944 manuela.stuerzer@db.com+4969910-11086 lars.vom-cleff@db.com+49 69910-13526 Bertrandt AGEDAG AGflatexDEGIROSEGrenke AGHypoport SESIG Group AGSMA Solar Technology AG Alzchem Group AGNeste OyjVerbio SE Aixtron SE OutlookAIXTRONSEis aleadingproviderofMOCVDequipmentfortheproductionof compound semi- conductors, positioning it at the heart of several long-term structural growth trends in powerelectronics and optoelectronics.Managementhas clearlyframed2026asatransitionyear,withasignificant product mix shift where a cyclical trough in silicon carbide (SiC) tools is being offset by acreates an attractive scenario for investors.While near-term visibility is limited, the market has nowreset its expectations. Looking to 2027 and beyond, we anticipate a multi-pronged growth re-anticipated adoption of gallium nitride (GaN) for Al data center power architectures and a cyclicaltrading at multi-year valuation highs, suggesting that the growth potential is mostly reflected in theshare price, and we see a balanced risk-return profile. Based on this assessment, we rate Aixtron aHold.Valuation valuation, reflecting our view that the market is increasingly willing to treat Aixtron as a "conceptstock," focused on its long-term growth optionalities rather than near-term cyclicality. The targetmultiple compares to a (post-Covid) trading range of 10x to 40x, and puts Aixtron on a discount tofaster-growing semicap peers trading at >30x.Risk General risks include fluctuations in the broader economic environment and shifts in the competitivelandscape,which couldpresentboth opportunities and challenges.Company-specific risks thatcould impact performance include: (1) Sic Market Dynamics: A prolonged or deeper-than-expectedcyclical downturn in the SiC market could delay a recovery in tool demand beyond 2027 (downside).Conversely,a quicker-than-expected recovery in the SiC market, driven by accelerated EV adoptionor new use cases, could provide earlier upside (upside).(2) GaN Adoption in Al Data Centers: Slower-than-anticipated adoption of GaN in Al data center power architectures could push out this keygrowth catalyst (downside). However, faster-than-expected penetration or broader applications ofGaN in this segment could significantly accelerate demand (upside). (3) Al-Driven OpticalInterconnect Build-out: A slowdown in the Al-driven optical interconnect build-out could dampenthe current strength in the optoelectronics segment (downside). An acceleration or sustained strongdemand in this area, potentially fueled by new technologies or customer wins, could further boostoptoelectronics (upside). (4) Competition: Increased competition from local tool manufacturers inChina could lead to marketshare loss orpricing pressure (downside).Aixtron's abilityto maintain itstechnological leadership and differentiate its multi-wafer platforms could mitigate this risk or evenlead to market share gains (upside).(5)Foreign ExchangeMovements:Unfavorableforeign exchangemovements, particularly a weaker US Dollar, could negatively impact reported margins (downside).Conversely,favorableFX movements could provide a tailwind to profitability (upside). Source:DeutscheBankestimates,Bloomberg FinanceLP Aixtron SE Aixtron SE Aixtron SE Aixtron SE Alzchem Group AG OutlookAlzchemGroupAG,founded in1908,isa specializedGermanchemicalscompanywithaunique position in the calcium carbide/calcium cyanide (NCN) value chain. Its vertically integratedsupporting security of supply, cost efficiency and flexibility.The core of the investment case isAlzchem's exposure to two structurally growing,high-margin specialty products:creatine andnitroguanidine,for which it is the exclusive Western market leader.We expect both to bekeyearnings drivers over the coming years, with EBITDA margins close to 40%. Alzchem is strategicallypositioned to capitalize on secular megatrends like healthy aging,global population growth, safety &defense, and climate protection/renewable energy.The company's significant capacity expansionplans, backedby customerand government grants, forboth creatine and nitroguanidine,underpin acompelling multi-year growth story. We forecast strong earnings trajectory, with 11% Sales CAGRand14%EBITDACAGRfor2025-2030E. Valuation Our target price is based on a DCF valuation, back-tested with peer multiples. Key DCF parametersinclude a 6.8% WACC and a 1.5% terminal growth rate, broadly in line with long-term GDP growthexpectations for mature markets.This target price implies a 20.3x EV/EBITDAand 37.3x P/E forFY26E,easing to13.9xEV/EBITDAand27.4xP/EforFY28E. Risk Major risks include Asian competition,pesticide export controversy regarding cyanamide,volatileenergy costs, substitution risk,demand volatility,legal and regulatory uncertainties,productionAlzchem employs various strategies to mitigate these risks,such as focusing on high-qualityproduct