美国太阳能成本上涨对转型速度的影响

Global changerelativeeconomics Analyst,SustainabilityResearchHSBC Bankplcajani.sivapalan@hsbc.com+442032682973Nneka Chike-Obi + Past US trade barriers shifted solar supply chains rather thanstopping solar market growth Director,SustainabilityResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitednneka.chike-obi@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1241Amit Shrivastava* + Global oversupply limits the read-across to solar costselsewhere Director,SustainabilityEuropean Equity StrategyHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCamit1.shrivastava@hsbc.com+971 450 93349Amy Tyler OurAsia EnergyTransitionteamrecentlyassessed the impactofnewUstrade measuresonsilicon-basedsolarproductsinUSSolar.Section232:Morethananimport tariff(7August 2026).The teamexpects the combination of minimum importprices and an additional 15% tariff to raise US module prices by 33-53% from currentlevels, translating into around a 10% increase in utility-scale solar project costs. Associate,SustainabilityResearchHSBC Bank plcamy.frances.tyler@hsbc.com+442033594059 For us, the question is what this means for transition speed. In The need for speed(10June2026),weintroducedtheNet-ZeroTransitionConditionsFramework(NZTCF)toassess whetherthe conditions that enable transition are becoming moreorlesssupportiveoffasterchange.Thefirstofthoseconditionsisrelativeeconomicattractiveness-whetherthe economics increasinglyfavour clean technologies overincumbentfossil alternatives. *Emplyed bya non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Highersolarcostsmovethat condition inthewrongdirection inthe US,butthemagnitude matters. The estimated c10% increase in utility-scale project costsweakens relative economic attractiveness at the margin, but appears insufficient tomaterially alter the economics of solar relative tofossil alternatives. Globally,theeffect should be smaller still. Global PV manufacturing capacity exceeded 1,100 -1,350GW in2024-more than double the annual deployment of PV systems1.leaving manufacturers competing fordemand inanalreadyoversuppliedmarket.Thenew US measures do not resolve that imbalance, limiting the likely impact on globalsolarprices. AmoreprotectedUsmarketcould,however,increasecompetitionfordemandelsewhere.Our analysis highlights Brazil and Saudi Arabia as sizeable solarmarketswith established Chinese panel import channels, while India, Germany, Turkiye,Japan andFrance stand out for the scale of deployment relativeto current Chinesepanel imports,although the opportunityfor additional supply will depend on domesticmanufacturing and trade policy HSBCFundingtheFuture Survey Al megadeals and the rest Click to view TIEA, Renewables 2025 This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. solarproducts date backto2012,withfurthermeasures introduced as supplychains adjusted,followed by the Section 201 safeguard in 2018. route supply chains morethan reduce deployment restrictions on direct Chinese supply, imports shifted towards Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia andCambodia. As trade measures subsequently tightened on those markets, the sourcing mixshifted again:the chart below shows Indonesia, Laos and the Philippines becoming materiallymore important in2025as imports from severaldominant Southeast Asian suppliers declined. Previous interventions also did not coincide with a sustained contraction in the US solar market.Annual installations increased from around 10GW in 2018 to 48GW in2025, while imports ofcellsandpanels rose fromaround7GW to55GW over the sameperiod (seechart below).Imports fell from their 2024 peak in 2025 as trade restrictions tightened, but remainedsubstantially above the levels seen when the Section 201 safeguard was introduced. Installationsroseandimports grew,implyingsubstitution not shutdown The historical record cannot tell us what deployment would have been in the absence of thoseinterventions. It does, however, show that higher trade barriers were not sufficient to prevent the USsolar market from continuing to expand as global technology costs fell and supply chains adjusted. country-specific tariffs, minimum import prices establish a floor for imported products. Even so,importsareunlikelytodisappear.BloombergNEFestimatesthatimportedcomponentsremaircheaper than fully integrated US production even under the new minimum-price regime2. Themeasuresthereforenarrowthecostadvantageofimportsratherthaneliminatingit. Latest measures may raiseprices, but don't eliminate theimporteconomics For driver 1 of the NZTCF, the read-across is relatively modest. US solar becomes moremeasures are being introduced after more than a decade in which falling technology costs havesubstantially improved the relative economic attractiveness of solar compared with fossilgeneration. A roughly 10% increase in utility-scale project costs therefore erodes part of thatadvantage rathert