废除美国环保署碳污染标准的隐性成本：对环境、家庭和社会的影响

Issue Brief 25-10 byNicholas RoyandKaren Palmer— August 2025 On June 11, 2025, the US Environmental ProtectionAgency (EPA) proposed a repeal of the existingGreenhouse Gas Standards and Guidelines for Fossil-Fired Power Plants, hereafter referred to as the CarbonPollution Standards (CPS). EPA’s repeal is part of thenew administration’s deregulatory agenda for the USpower sector, whose stated goals are to lower costs andto meet rising electricity demand. The proposed repealwould lead to measurable changes in outcomes for thenation’s electric power sector, especially when assessedin conjunction with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA) and updated electricity demand forecasts. •A net increase of 2.1–3.3 percent annually innational average electricity prices from now to2050. This combines the 1–1.4 percent decreasefrom CPS repeal with the OBBBA increases of3.3–4.7 percent over the same period. •Net increases in average net household electricitycosts of $67–$97 per year in the 2030s, driven bythe CPS’s decreases of $19–$24 annually and theOBBBA’s increases of $87–$121 annually over thesame time period. However, CPS repeal savingsfor households increase in the 2040s to $34–$44annually on average per household over thedecade due to coal plants remaining online. Policymakers and the public alike are paying attentionto the action’s likely result of slowing US greenhousegas emission reductions. In this issue brief, we considerthe economic costs of the greenhouse gas emissionsunabated due to this repeal and evaluate other costsand benefits for the US population from the proposedrepeal using updated data. •Increases in health damages that exceed thesavings from lower compliance costs. The climateand health damages from this regulatory repeal willbe 4–8 times the savings from reduced compliancecosts across the modeled sensitivities. Consideringsolely the health effects along with the powersector’s financial outcomes, there is a total net costof $128.9 billion (2024 US dollars) through 2050 toUS society in our central case. Indeed, according to our analysis:if the EPA conducteda cost-benefit analysis using updated electricitydemand projections and including the electricity taxcredit changes from the OBBBA, then the repeal of theCPS would fail a traditional cost-benefit test—evenwithout factoring in the increase in greenhouse gasemissions. 1.Modeling and RegulatoryContext EPA’s 2025 Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA)of the proposed rule to repeal the CPS repurposesanalysis from 2024 that justified the original rulemaking(EPA 2025; 2024a). Since 2024, the power sector hasfaced a variety of new stressors. First, current andexpected electricity demand growth is higher thanwas anticipated in 2024. The Energy InformationAdministration (EIA), which is the source of electricity With the repeal of the CPS, US residents will likely see: •Increases in coal generation of 169–456 TWh by2040, or 4.8–8.7 times as much coal generation aswas expected with the regulations in place.•An increase in cumulative CO2emissions from thepower sector by 1.2–5.8 gigatons by 2050. demand projections for EPA’s 2024 RIA, released anupdated forecast of electricity demand growth inthe United States in its 2025 Annual Energy Outlook(AEO)that presents an average annual growth ratetwice as high as that in the RIA forecast. Second,international and domestic fossil gas markets havegreater uncertainty given ongoing geopolitical conflictin Europe and the Middle East, trade renegotiations,and the uncertain energy market impacts of theAdministration’s goal to“unleash American energy”.Finally, Congress passed the OBBBA, weakening thetax credit incentives for investment in renewablesand enhancing the incentive for investment in carboncapture and sequestration originally enacted as partof the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that became law in2023. modeling analysis. We also consider sensitivities of highand low fossil gas prices as well as an additional high-demand scenario to account for broader uncertainty inthe power sector. We quantify the impacts of repealingthe CPS on the environment, households, the powersystem, and society in the United States. EPA finalized the CPS in 2024 under Section 111 ofthe Clean Air Act. These standards place emissionsrequirements on existing coal generating facilities andnew fossil-gas generating facilities. Section 111 requiresEPA to identify the best system of emissions reductions(BSER) as a benchmark for the emissions standardthat facilities must meet or exceed to comply withthe regulation. The BSER can vary by type of facilitybased on characteristics such as fuel type, technology,output, and vintage. Figure 1 shows a summary of CPSemissions standards and the BSER they are based on.Facilities can comply with the emissions standard by This issue brief incorporates the updated legislation aswell as EIA’s updated electricity demand forecast in our cofiring with other fuels, reducing generation, adoptingemissions contro