转型经济体改革的顺序和速度：对乌兹别克斯坦案例的影响

The Sequencing andSpeed of Reforms inTransition Economies:Implications for the Caseof Uzbekistan Alejandro Simone SIP/2025/086 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 30, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/144. 2025JUN IMFSelected IssuesPaper Middle East and Central Asia Department The Sequencing and speed of Reforms in Transition Economies: Implications for the Case ofUzbekistanPrepared byAlejandro Simone Authorized for distribution byYasser AbdihJune 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 30, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/144. ABSTRACT:Uzbekistan has made significant progress in its transition to a market economy since 2017,achieving advancements in macroeconomic stabilization, trade and exchange rate liberalization, priceliberalization, and small-scale privatization. Despite these successes, challenges remain in reforming andprivatizing large state-owned enterprises and banks and fostering a competitive market environment with easymarket entry and exit. Future reforms should focus on entrenching macroeconomic stability, completing tradeand price liberalization, hardening budget constraints for state-owned enterprises and banks, enhancing theircorporate governance, accelerating privatization, and redefining the state's role to support private sectordevelopment. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Simone, Alejandro (2025) “The Sequencing and speed of Reforms in TransitionEconomies: Implications for the Case of Uzbekistan”, SIP/2025/086, International Monetary Fund. The Sequencing and Speed ofReforms in Transition Economies:Implications for the Case ofUzbekistan Republic of Uzbekistan Prepared byAlejandro Simone1 REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East and CentralAsia Department Prepared ByAlejandro Simone CONTENTS THE SEQUENCING AND SPEED OF REFORMS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES:IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN____________________________________2 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B. Academic Literature on the Transition Process and Sequencing and Speed ofReforms________________________________________________________________________________3C. Sequencing and Speed of Transition Reform Experiences____________________________8D. Uzbekistan’s Transition Progress___________________________________________________10E. Policy Implications for Reform Implementation Going Forward____________________13 FIGURES 1. EBRD Core Transition Indicators 1989-2014________________________________________162. EBRD Infrastructure Reform Indicators_____________________________________________173. Financial Sector Reform Indicators_________________________________________________18 TABLE 1. Typology of Transition Economies Depending on the their Initial TransitionStrategies______________________________________________________________________________8 References____________________________________________________________________________19 THE SPEEDAND SEQUENCINGOF REFORMS INTRANSITION ECONOMIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THECASE OF UZBEKISTAN Uzbekistan has made significant progress in its transition to a market economy since 2017. Key areasof progress aremacroeconomic stabilization, trade and exchange rate liberalization, priceliberalization, andsmall-scaleprivatizationwhere the speed and sequencing of transition reformsaresimilar tothatof other successful transition economies.There are nevertheless challengeswiththereform andprivatization of large state-owned enterprises,the establishmentofa competitiveenvironment with easy market entry and exit, andthereduction andtransformationofthe role of thestatein the economy.Reforms going forward should focus onentrenching macroeconomicstability,completing price and tradeliberalization,hardening budget constraints forstate-owned enterprises(SOEs)andstate-ownedcommercial banks(SOCBs), strengtheningSOE and SOCBcorporategovernance, acceleratingSOE and SOCBprivatization,andrefocusingthestate’s role as an enablerofanenvironment conducive to private sector development. A.Introduction 1.Uzbekistan has made significant progress in its transition to a market economy since 2017.Key achievements were the unification of the official and parallel market exchange rates andelimination of foreign exchange restrictions; the deregulation of prices for most goods and services;the liberalization of trade,includingsignificant progress towards World Trade Organization (WTO)accession;and the commencement of energy sector reform that saw tariff increases combined withprotection of the vulnerable.Notableachievementsalsoi