阿里巴巴（BABA US）买入评级：云计算成亮点，电商触底

Internet Software & Services Buy: Cloud stays a bright spot and continual quick commerce loss narrowing 178.00170.00 + Cloud growth to accelerate with improving margin to continue RaiseTPtoUSD178(fromUSD170)andretainBuy We lift our cloud assumption again: We turn more constructive on Alibaba's cloudgrowthprospects.An accelerating growth outlook and margin uptick trajectory haveturnedmorecertain.Weraiseourcloudtop-andbottom-lineestimatesby4%and12%,respectively.Losses from Qwenmodeltrainingand inferencingexpensebookedundernew Al labs and apps segment are expected tobe reined in overtime, helpedby improved training efficiency and monetization. On the e-commerce front, we findcomfort in the bottoming out decline of CMR in JuneQ; coupled with a more prudentmarketing approach in traditional ecommerce and continual narrowingof losses inquick commerce, we are more confident that segmental earnings growth y-o-y canimprove overtime.Overall, we raiseFY27-29erevenueby0-2% andraise EBITAby1-4% for the same period. However, we trim FY27-29e earnings estimates due to ahighertax rate. After factoring in all the changes, we raise our TP to USD178(from USD170), which implies c38% upside. We maintain a Buy rating. Progress onAl monetizationandaddressing concerns overFcF:1)Greaterconfidence in achieving Al revenue targets: BABA guided that annualised Al-withMaaS ARR (annual recurring revenue) on track to reach RMB3Obn by year-end,potentially earlier.2) Capex accelerated to RMB68bn (+75% y-o-y) in June Q wasdriven by fluctuation in the procurement cycle in CPU and higher chip component cost,thoughmanagement suggest this run rate is not a reference to annualized capex.Also,funding of capex can be derived from:a)better working capital efficiency viatap into capital market. 3) Rolc and payback cycle: Management indicated that thecash payback period for Al-related capex is around three years based on currentaverage GPM, though it can shorten to roughly 2-2.5 years driven by: (i) improving Alcapabilities; (ii)faster adoption pace of in-house chip versus externally sourced; and (ii)takingprepayments from customers.CurrentROlC of Alchips standsat around15%andcancontinuetoimprove Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC esimates Charlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615 Charlotte Wei*Analyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcharlotte.wei@hsbc.com.hk+85229966539 1QFY27review:Revenuerose9%y-o-ytoRMB269bn,broadlyinlinewithHSBCeand consensus.CMR met expectations (-7%, or+1% on a like-for-like basis),whileCloud accelerated to 45%.Adjusted EBITA fell30% y-o-y to RMB27.3bn, coming in3-7% above HSBCe/consensus, driven by a stronger-than-expected cloud margin of12%. Non-GAAP net income fell 42% to RMB20.6bn, broadly in line with HSBCewith a modest drag from higher-than-expected income tax expenses (see p8-10) Lauren Cai*AssociateGuangzhou *Employed by a non-US afliate of HSBC Securties (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC13thAnualChina Conference|1-2September2026Findoutn Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Al-driven cloudgrowth is settoaccelerate 5:BABA has thelargest market share in terms of Al cloud ■AliCloudCompany ACompany BCompany CCompany DCompany ECompany FOthers Keyupdatesonquickcommerce CompetitivelandscapeofconsumerAlapps DissectingCMRdrivers 1QFY27resultssnapshot Revenue rose 9% y-o-y to RMB269bn, broadly in line with HSBCe and consensus. Newsegmentation:BABAnowreportsfoursegments:1)Alibaba E-commerceGroup(Chinacommerce, international commerce and Freshippo); 2) Al Cloud & Compute Services (Cloudpreviously in "All Others"); and 4) All Others. Alibaba E-commerce Group: CMR: Reported CMR was in line with HSBCe, down 7% y-o-y or +1% like-for-like. Quick commerce continuedto improve UE whilemaintaining market share. quarter (vs 62m in 4QFY26).International e-commerce: Revenue declined 1% y-o-y. AliExpress achieved operating profit this quarterAlCloud&ComputeServices: reached RMB12.4bn (vs. RMB9.0bn in March Q) and posted triple-digit growth for a12th straight quarter. achievedbroadcommercialadoptionviaAlibabaCloud,with65O+externalcustomersacross 20+ industries, strengthening Alibaba's full-stack Alpositioning across models,agents, cloud infrastructure. Capex grew 75% y-o-y to cRMB68bn, reflecting heavy investment in Al infrastructure. Al Labs &Applications: Revenue grew 16%y-0-y to RMB3.3bn.Adjusted EBITA loss was RMB13.8bn due toincreased investment in Al capabilities, and higher inference cost related to Qwen app. A