阿里巴巴集团（BABA US）：维持买入评级，目标价下调至172美元

Alibaba Group(BABA US) Buy:More details on AI monetization journey China Faster QC improvement can better fund AI investment MAINTAIN BUY ◆More closed source models can drive better token sales TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)172.00180.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE119.72+43.7%(as of07 Apr 2026) ◆RetainBuy,but cut TPto USD172(from USD180) AI investment to continue:We have turned more confident on the loss narrowing pacein quick commerce (QC), helped in part by regulatory changes, and so we trim QClossesin FY27 from RMB50bn to RMB44bn.We expect thisimprovement to be underpinnedbyastable GTV market share,whichshouldallow BABA to leverage scaleanddriveacontinualunit economicsuplift. These effortsshouldfree up resources for BABA to stepupopex in AI model training and user acquisition for Qwen. We raise investment inthe ‘allothers’segment,whichoverallleads us tocutFY26-28eearnings by8~9%. Updatedaccounting treatment for merchant rebatesis expected to dwarfcustomer managementrevenue (CMR)growthopticallyin FY27,but,on a like-for-like basis, we continue toassume CMR growth in FY27 at 4-5%. Given it is just a recategorization of S&M cost ascontra revenue, these adjustments have minimal impactonearnings overall. Afterfactoringin ourestimate changes,our DCF-basedTPfallsto USD172 (from USD180);we retainourBuyrating.The intraday share price responded favourably to increasedcertainty around QC loss narrowing. Losses in the‘allothers’segment coming in lowerthan expectedand cloud margin upliftcouldbe the next catalysts. Al monetization and profit pathway:BABA is shifting from a pure open-sourceapproach to hybrid and closed source models to better capture booming tokenconsumption revenue. MaaS revenue can potentially increase from less than 10% to50% of Al’s revenue within five years. Despite near-term marginremaining athighsingle digit, management expectslong-term cloud marginsto reach 20%. Thiswill bedriven by: 1) cloud price hikes,which can help offset higher memory and storagecosts; 2) expansion of the total addressable market (TAM) with Chinese enterprises’IT budgets rising from 5-10% of revenue to over 15% as agentic AI deploymentreduces costs; and 3) the support of in-housechips likePPU,which account for lessthan 10% of capex budget,can also drive further efficiency improvements. We expectcontinual commitment to shareholder returnsvia regular dividends,butthebuybackpace is contingent on share price performance. Charlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615 Charlotte Wei*Analyst, Internet Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcharlotte.wei@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6539 Marquarter preview:BABAis set toreportthe Mar 2026quarter4QFY26 inMay.Weforecastrevenuegrowth of3.7% yoy to RMB245bn. Weexpect adjusted EBITAtofall 83% yoy to RMB5.5bn,implying a 2.2% margin (down 12pptsyoy). We seelosses narrowingin QC (HSBCe RMB17bn losses),but widening inthe‘allothers’segment (to-RMB20bn), driven by higher spend onmodel training and inferencing,alongside increasedpromotionalinvestment inconsumer-facing AI apps.By segment,we expect:1) CMRto grow1.3% yoy(c7%LFL, vs1% inthe Decquarter), reflectinganaccountingreclassification ofcertain merchant incentives; 2)cloud revenue growthto accelerate to40% yoy; 3) international revenueto rise6% yoy; and 4)‘all others’to decline21% yoy on the spin-off oftheoffline retail businesses. Lauren Cai*AssociateGuangzhou * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Investment Summit | 14 to 16 April 2026Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Alibaba Group AI user trendsand cloud acceleration 7:BABA’s Qwen model is leading in enterprise market in China with 32% share in 2H25… Key updates on quick commerce Dissecting CMRdrivers Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir perso