阿里巴巴集团（BABA US）：买入：非交易路演要点

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)176.00SHARE PRICE(USD)113.84(as of30 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)Market cap(USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesCharlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615Charlotte Wei*Analyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcharlotte.wei@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6539* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesInternet Software & ServicesChina05/24Target price: 176.00High: 147.57 Low: 72.00 Current: 113.84 Find out morePREVIOUS TARGET(USD)176.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+54.6%271,622Free float31%271,622BBGBABA US2,718RICBABA.N03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028e65.4174.4984.1591.7765.4174.4984.1591.770.00.00.065.5071.0481.5391.3312.511.09.71.51.11.39.47.46.315.616.216.516.159.00124.50190.0011/2405/25 ◆◆◆ 0.08.91.45.7 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue996,3471,044,6291,132,893EBITDA170,165214,330239,772Depreciation & amortisation-29,260-41,785-45,316Operating profit/EBIT140,905172,544194,456Net interest11,1638,41311,574PBT161,421189,156215,430HSBC PBT189,891208,982236,929Taxation-35,445-39,543-46,946Net profit129,470153,746172,618HSBC net profit157,940173,571194,116Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations158,027190,232257,793Capex-84,277-110,000-121,000Cash flow from investment-185,415-110,000-121,000Dividends-29,612-21,413-23,947Change in net debt196,694-6,732-63,293FCF equity73,75080,232136,793Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets276,412302,788331,908Tangible fixed assets203,348238,563277,947Current assets674,049633,091767,916Cash & others374,313381,045444,338Totalassets1,804,2271,878,3012,066,856Operating liabilities417,320398,974474,860Gross debt230,703230,703230,703Net debt-143,610-150,342-213,635Shareholders' funds1,021,5711,118,1241,234,926Invested capital445,607523,096563,072Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue5.94.88.4EBITDA21.626.011.9Operating profit24.322.512.7PBT72.017.213.9HSBC EPS5.113.913.0Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)2.32.22.1ROIC26.128.928.6ROE15.616.216.5ROA7.58.58.8EBITDA margin17.120.521.2Operating profit margin14.116.517.2EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-13.2-12.7-16.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)-0.8-0.7-0.9CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)53.6265.9874.83HSBC EPS (diluted)65.4174.4984.15DPS12.269.1910.38Book value423.07479.86535.34Financials & valuation:Alibaba Group Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 30 May 2025 Risks to our viewKey downside risks◆Potential acceleration in market share loss◆Margin pressure and competition; regulatory risks◆Higher-than-expected costs to integrate new retailinitiatives◆Economic slowdown◆Slower-than-expected global expansionGeopolitical risks For the RMB counter (89988 HK, CMP RMB103.8), we convertour H-share target price of HKD172to RMB based on our FXteam’s end-forecast for RMB-HKD of1.06 (unchanged). Thisreturns a target price of RMB161.00 (unchanged). 4Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Charlene Liu and Charlotte WeiImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as diff