满帮集团（YMM US）：买入：2025年第一季度非交易路演要点

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Investment philosophy remains unchanged;spending couldcreate upside in orders, users and revenue in the longrunTake rate upside remains unchangedlong-termMaintain BuyratingandUSD18TP; valuation undemanding,trading at 15.5x 2025e PE, vs. 37% EPS growthWe hosted Full Truck Alliance’s (YMM) investor relations on anon-deal roadshow(NDR)call on 23 May 2025, and we highlight the key takeaways below.Balancing investment, margins and shareholder return:Despite higher spending,YMM’s investment philosophy remains unchanged (i.e. business-driven) andconservative, and balancedwith shareholder return (2025 is set as a baseline forfuture shareholder return levels).The margins expansion story is unchanged, ashigh-margin revenue continues to growfaster while headcount remainsstable near-term.1)Autonomous driving:Plus PRC’s consolidationwill contribute RMB100mlosses in 2025. Although the technologystill needs licences to be usedontheopenroad, in the long-run it could boost YMM’s volume and user growth,and generatenew revenue such as licence fees on the autonomous driving system and fleetoperations. 2)AI: YMM budgetsRMB100m spending in 2025 for AIinitiatives.IthastestedanAI assistantin Changshato help shippers find truckers more efficiently,liftingthefulfilment rate by 5ppts. More spending is needed to promote the toolfurther. YMM is also exploring ways to improve truckers’ ability to find orders, andintegratemore automation into internal functions like customer services.Other key updates:1)Transaction services: The softer growth outlook was due tolower ASP (mix shift to lower ASP LTL and oversupply of truckers) and theramp-upoftrucker membership. Trucker membership can improve truckers’ willingness tofulfilmoreorders on YMM givenaccesstohigherquality orders, but 12-month amortization ofrevenue means it mightmodestly affectthe near-termcommission rate.There is nochange in thetarget to reach3%commissionby2028, and YMM can benefit from upsidein volumeand users in the long-run. 2)LTL strategy: LTL orders grew 40%YTDthanksto carpooling features, and this should remain a key driver. YMM is also exploring offlineLTL business via investment in Xingman Logistics, which involves revenue sharing withregional LTL dedicated line companies. 3)Intra-city strategy: YMM hasa20-30%market share in Guangdong province, but it does not aim to become a leaderat anationwide level given low entry barriersand low customer loyalty. 4)HK listing: YMMhas been actively preparing for potential Hong Kong listing–early preparationwork hasbeen initiated on governance matters, andwilltake a few monthstoprepare.Valuation remains undemanding:YMM istrading at15.5x 2025ePE, vs.37%EPSgrowth.We remain constructive on the long-term growth outlook, driven byafavourable revenue mix shift,ongoingmarket share gain thanks to the efficiency itbrings to shippers and truckers,and upside in commission rate. 2Q25 previewon p6.Full Truck Alliance Co(YMM US)Buy:1Q25NDR takeaways PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)18.00UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+61.1%11,856Free float71%11,856BBGYMM US111RICYMM.N12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027e3.805.196.478.253.805.196.478.250.00.00.00.510.700.851.0521.215.512.41.31.82.421.312.08.610.713.715.918.55.5012.7520.0011/2405/25High: 13.69 Low: 6.91 Current: 11.17 ◆◆◆ 0.09.73.06.3 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue11,23912,64714,66417,394EBITDA2,5534,5916,1668,295Depreciation & amortisation-78-99-108-119Operating profit/EBIT2,4754,4926,0588,176Net interest1,073970927885PBT3,3635,6617,1559,225HSBC PBT4,2606,1667,6609,740Taxation-239-720-918-1,182Net profit3,0704,9006,1968,002HSBC net profit3,9675,4056,7018,517Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations2,9552,4815,3705,374Capex-75-163-189-224Cash flow from investment-2,420-2,163-2,189-2,224Dividends-1,064-1,480-2,004-2,481Change in net debt-2,511631-1,706-1,198FCF equity2,8812,3185,1805,149Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets3,5183,5103,5033,495Tangible fixed assets504567649754Current assets27,25629,15732,59036,510Cash & others20,91420,28321,98923,187Total assets41,28743,24746,75850,779Operating liabilities3,1522,6622,9612,443Gross debt0000Netdebt-20,914-20,283-21,989-23,187Shareholders' funds38,12040,52843,69948,196Invested capital7,21210,29011,79215,128Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue33.212.515.918.6EBITDA138.179.834.334.5Operating profit148.181.534.935.0PBT44.168.326.428.9HSBC EPS44.336.824.527.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.71.41.31.3ROIC34.144.847.853.0ROE10.713.715.918.5ROA7.711.713.916.5EBITDA margin22.736.342.047.7Operating profit margin22.035.541.347.0EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-54.8-50.0-50.2-48.0Net debt/EBITDA (x)-8.2-4.4-3.6-2.8CF from operations/net debtPershare data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)2.944.