满帮集团（YMM US）：投资人工智能、自动驾驶和用户增长以提升未来竞争力，维持买入评级

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)18.0018.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE11.91+51.1%(as of21 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)12,551Free float71%Market cap (USDm)12,551BBGYMM US3m ADTV (USDm)110RICYMM.NFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS3.805.196.478.25HSBC EPS (prev)3.805.286.688.52Change (%)0.0-1.5-3.3-3.1Consensus EPS0.510.730.881.08PE (x)22.716.613.310.4Dividend yield (%)1.21.72.2EV/EBITDA (x)23.413.29.5ROE (%)10.713.715.918.552-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesRitchie Sun*, CFAAnalyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4392Charlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesTransportationInfrastructureChina5.5012.7520.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 18.00High: 13.69 Low: 6.91 Current: 11.91 ◆◆◆ 2.86.9 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue11,23912,64714,66417,394EBITDA2,5534,5916,1668,295Depreciation & amortisation-78-99-108-119Operating profit/EBIT2,4754,4926,0588,176Net interest1,073970927885PBT3,3635,6617,1559,225HSBC PBT4,2606,1667,6609,740Taxation-239-720-918-1,182Net profit3,0704,9006,1968,002HSBC net profit3,9675,4056,7018,517Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations2,9552,4815,3705,374Capex-75-163-189-224Cash flow from investment-2,420-2,163-2,189-2,224Dividends-1,064-1,480-2,004-2,481Change in net debt-2,511631-1,706-1,198FCF equity2,8812,3185,1805,149Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets3,5183,5103,5033,495Tangible fixed assets504567649754Currentassets27,25629,15732,59036,510Cash & others20,91420,28321,98923,187Total assets41,28743,24746,75850,779Operating liabilities3,1522,6622,9612,443Gross debt0000Net debt-20,914-20,283-21,989-23,187Shareholders' funds38,12040,52843,69948,196Invested capital7,21210,29011,79215,128Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027ey-o-y% changeRevenue33.212.515.918.6EBITDA138.179.834.334.5Operatingprofit148.181.534.935.0PBT44.168.326.428.9HSBC EPS44.336.824.527.6Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.71.41.31.3ROIC34.144.847.853.0ROE10.713.715.918.5ROA7.711.713.916.5EBITDA margin22.736.342.047.7Operating profit margin22.035.541.347.0EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-54.8-50.0-50.2-48.0Net debt/EBITDA (x)-8.2-4.4-3.6-2.8CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)2.944.715.987.75HSBC EPS (diluted)3.805.196.478.25DPS1.051.421.932.40Book value36.4738.9542.1646.69Financials & valuation:Full Truck Alliance Co Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 21 May 2025 1Q25result beat expectations,2Q25 revenue guidance inlineTotal revenuegrew19%y-o-yto RMB2.7bn, beating consensus by2% due to strength acrossalmost allrevenue lines, particularly transaction services andfreight listing. By segment:◆Freight brokerage service revenuewas flaty-o-yat RMB966m,in linewithconsensus,with higher take rate partially offset by decline in volume.◆Freight listingservice revenuewas up10%y-o-yto RMB235m,8% above consensus,due to higher paying members. Average shipper MAU grew29%y-o-yto 2.76m.◆Transaction service revenuegrew by51%y-o-yto RMB1.05bn,2% above consensus,driven by higher-than-expected fulfilled orders and improved monetization efficiency.Fulfilled orders were up 23%y-o-yto48m,1% above consensus.◆Value added servicesrevenuegrew by13%y-o-yto RMB453m,1% above consensus,driven by growth in credit solutions.GPMwas74.1%,7.6ppts beatvs consensus.Non-GAAP OPwas RMB1.32bn,16% above consensus.Non-GAAP OPMwas48.8%,5.8pptsabove consensus.OPMbeat consensus mainly due to the revenue beatand GPM beat,partially offset by higher-than-expected S&M, G&A and R&D cost ratios.Non-GAAP attributable net incomewas RMB1.38bn,8% above consensus. The magnitude ofthe outperformance is smaller than operatingprofit becauseofthehigher-than-expected taxrate.2Q25 revenue outlook largelyin linewith consensus: The company expects total revenue ofRMB3.06-3.12bn (+10.6-12.9%y-o-y), where the mid-point (+11.8%) is largelyin linewithconsensus (+12.3%y-o-y).Consolidating Plus PRC (智加科技), a commercial vehicle autonomous driving company:FTAmade anadditional USD125m investmentinPlus PRC and will control the company oncethe transaction is complete. It will then consolidate the financial results of Plus PRC.Exhibit1:1Q25results beaton thetop-line and bottom-lineRMBmReportedHSBCeConsensus1Q251Q25+/-%1Q25Fulfilled orders (m)48472%48y-o-y23%21%21%1. Freight matching services2,2472,2151%2,205y-o-y20%18%18%1.1 Freight brokerage service9669680%