月度回顾：放缓但未脱轨——中国房地产市场

REMD + The softermomentum shouldn't derail the recovery narrative + Resilient tier-1 market and robust land market are key pillars• Prefer CRL and C&D (both Buy); maintain Hold on CR Mixc Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222841675Michelle Kwok* Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918Oliver Yu* Softening momentum: The July NBS release suggests the y-o-y decline in homeprices continues to narrow, although the m-o-m trend remains subdued. AsPs in theprimary and secondary markets declined 3.4% and 5.4% y-o-y, respectivelynarrowing from 3.5% and 5.6% in June.The number of cities reporting m-0-m gainsin the new home market declined to 17 but stll close to recent highs (excludingJune), a constructive sign that the breadth of m-o-m improvement is holding up. GFAsold across 30 key cities during 1-15 August declined 8% y-o-y amid the seasonalsummer lull, while tier-1 cities continued to stand out with 18% y-o-y growth. We thinkthe moderate slowdown is unlikely to derail the recovery narrative, as price declinescontinueto narrow andtop-tiermarkets remain akey anchor.Meanwhile,retailheadwinds persist, with growth slowing to 0.6% y-o-y (consensus: 1.5%). Analyst, Asia Real Estate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050Brian Yu* Associate,Asia Real EstateResearch The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85228227281Charlotte Ye* AssociateGuangzhou Tier-1 cities remain the bright spot: Month-to-date, two high-end projects inShanghai sold out on launch day,while the city's secondary transactions have alsoheld up, up 19% y-o-y. In Shenzhen, Beike data show average daily secondary-hometransactions have improved versus July,and thebid-ask spread narrowed tobelow9% as of 12 August. On inventory,tier-1 cities also lead the destocking process, withabsolute inventory down 7% y-o-y and inventory turnover month improving by 0.8months versus 2025. Centaline believes recent policy easing is helping stabilise tier-1price expectations and underpinning an“L-shaped"recovery.(Centaline CEOluncheon: L-shaped recovery in mainland: intact momentum in HK, 12 August 2026). *Emplyed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualfied pursuant to FINRA regulations Land market: Land auctions remain a key watch pointformarket sentiment(Positioning for a strong autumn, 12 August).National residential land sales'y-o-ydecline narrowed to 25% year-to-date. Jinmao acquired a mega site in Beijing with apremium of14%,showcasing strong appetite forland replenishment (Equity Snap:China Jinmao Group (817 HK): Moving up the curve in Beijing, 12 August 2026). Yanlord's swing to a loss (Yanlord Land Group: Deteriorating earnings visibility asscaleshrinks,14August2026)and Longfor'sprofit warning(EquitySnap:LongforGroup:DP remains 1H26 earnings drag: debt servicing intact, 17 August 2026).Bothare consistent with our view that developers have an incentive to kitchen sink legacyissues this year, clearing the decks and improving visibility into a 2027 earningstrajectory and the sustainability of luxury sales. Stockpicks:OurpreferrednamesareCRL (1109HK)andC&D (1908HK),bothWe remain cautious on CR Mixc (1209 HK) given retail headwinds and increasingdownside risk to earnings growth. HSBC13thAnnual ChinaConference Shenzhen|1-2September2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Property managers Average Downside risks Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews orforecasts expressed herein, including anyviews expressed onthe back page ofthe researchreport, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s)or views contained in this research report: Stephen Wang, CFA, Michelle Kwok, Oliver Yu and Brian Yu Important disclosuresEquities:Stockratingsandbasisforfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances