贵州茅台2026年第二季度业绩点评

Kweichow Moutai Results China 600519.SS600519CHSHH600519 Alcohol&Tobacco 2Q Miss; Market-oriented reforms tobear long-term fruit Han Zhang Research Analyst+852-2203-5802 Moutai's2Q26totalrevenueofRMB37.6bn(downby5%YoY)andNPATof RMB17.2bn(downby7%YoY)werebelowmarketexpectations.Thismissreflectstemporaryfluctuations duringthe early execution stageofthe company'smarket-orientedreforms,inourview. 2QMoutai liquor sales declined1%YoYtoRMB31.7bn,whileother series liquordropped25.0%YoYtoRMB5.1bn. Bychannel,direct saleswereupby34%YoY,accountingfor61%ofmainbusinessrevenue(upby18pptYoYand6pptQoQ),whilesalesfromwholesalers declined by 35% YoY.This is mainly a result of Moutai'sproactivechannelandpricingreforms (Figure2):iMoutaisaleswereupby283%YoYandaccountedfor51%ofmainbusinessrevenue(upby38pptYoY and 11ppt QoQ). Factoringin2Q26customeradvances(down42%YoYandup5%QoQ),2Qadjusted sales increased by ~4%YoY,while 2Q26 cash inflow from sellinggoods was up by ~8% YoY. 2Q GPM dropped by 1.2ppt YoY. We believe this decline, alongside theweaker-than-expectedrevenueperformance,wasmainlydrivenbya lessfavourable product mix(e.g.,lower contribution from super-premiumproducts),therealizationofex-factorypricecutsonnon-standardproductssince January this year, and operating deleverage. 2QopMfell by1.3ppt: its sellingexpenseratiooftotal revenuewasdownby0.2ppt, whileG&Aexpense ratio increased by0.3ppt. Valuation:PTcuttoRMB1,578.40;maintainBuy Despitesoft2Qresultsduringthelowseason,weexpect2H26revenuegrowthtoremainpositive,supportedbyalowbase andmultiplepricehikesunderMoutai'smarket-oriented reforms.Also,the recent stabilization of Feitian Moutai'swholesaleprices (atRMB1,700+/bottle sincelate Julytothe present)indicatesthepotentialsuccessofthecompany'songoingpricingandchannelmixadjustments. Weexpectthecompany'smarket-oriented pricing adjustments (byproduct and IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATED INAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescovered in its research reports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhavea conflict of interest that could affectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthisreport as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.THE CONTENTMAYNOT BE DISTRIBUTEDIN THE PEOPLE"S REPUBLIC OFCHINA ("THEPRC")(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCE WITHTHEAPPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU Alcohol&TobaccoKweichow Moutai bearfruitafterwards.Taking intoaccount Moutai's 2Q results,we have fine-tuned2026-28Eearningsdownby3%onaverage.OurDCF-basedpricetargetisthereforelowered to RMB1,578.40 from RMB1,660.00. The stock is currently trading at ahistorical low of ~20x2026EP/E.Maintain Buy. Alcohol&TobaccoKweichowMoutai Alcohol & TobaccoKweichow Moutai Alcohol&TobaccoKweichow Moutai Reuters:600519.SSBloomberg:600519CH Kweichow Moutai is principally engaged in the production and distribution of baijiu and common baijiu products, witha leading position in the sauce-flavor and premium bajiusegments. Its main product portfolio consists of KweichowMountai liquors and other liquor series. Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations MarginTrends Balance Sheet (CNYm) Solvency KeyCompanyMetrics Han Zhang+852 2203 5802han-a.zhang@db.com Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request Company itourqlobalAsidefromwithinthismportant risk and conflict disjeonourweare stronglyencouragedtoreview this information before investing.osurescanalsobefoundathttps ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may alsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction in additionto the United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulators andExplanatoryNotes.2.DeutscheBank and/orits affiliate(s)mayact as a marketmakerorliquidity providerin thefinancialinstruments issued bythiscompany. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction in additionto the United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-UsRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes.2.Deutsche Bankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstruments issued bythiscompany. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities otherthan the primary subject of thisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublished companyreportorvisit ourglobal disclosure look-uppageonour websiteandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting AnalystCertification Theviews expressed inthis report accurately reflectthepersonal views oftheundersigned leadanalyst(s)aboutthe subjectissuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive anycompensation forprovidinga specific recommendation or view in this report.HanZhang. Alcohol&TobaccoKweichow