德银关于网络安全合作伙伴调查的季度新业务结果

Research Analyst+1-212-250-8563 dbDIG, suggest a mixed quarternewbusiness forthe off-cyclecompanieswithin our coverage and stand in contrastexpectations fora post-Mythosdemandinflectionthathasdriventhegroup >80% higher since the April lows. Aswe surfaced at Black Hat 2026, growing cyber budgets over recent months arenot necessarily translating into immediate spend as customers are overwhelmedcomponent prices, and in some casesespending incremental dollars onservices/implementationvsnewtooling,especiallyattheenterpriselevel Research Associate+1-212-250-6174 PANW was the standout performer this quarter, and along with CYBR led thesurvey inpartneroutperformanceastheonlyvendorstoseethismetric improveq/qwithourresultspointingtohealthydemandacrosstheirrespectiveplatforms.Wethereforelook for comfortable revenue and NGS ARR outperformance in F4Q,albeit by a slimmer margin than in the prior quarter. After closing out FY26, wesuspect all eyes will be on the initial year-ahead outlook. Making prudentassumptionsforM&AcontributioninFY27impliestheStreetismodeling what weseeas veryachievableorganicgrowthacrossmostkeymetrics.Wethereforelookformgmt.to set revenue, ARR,andRPO guidance at least in linewith Street, withbias to the upside which we think should be enough to sustain outperformancefollowing the print. ThoughCRWDsawpartneroutperformanceticklowerfromF1Q,themetricremains broadly in line with the four-quarter average suggesting broadlyconsistent execution.Partnersreported a notable improvement in NG SIEM andFalcon Cloud Security traction in the quarter, the latter of which may bebenefiting from more muted new business for competitor Wiz. Following strongrecentstockperformanstretched valuation (~100x CY27 uFCF),and as theonly vendor to explicitly include Al-related demand benefits in near-termguidance, the investor bar for new business in the quarter will likely be set veryhigh. Though, against our steadier survey results we look for similar NNARRoutperformance in F2Q as in F1Q and we ponder whether this will be enough tosustain the current multiple. The SASE/zero trust-focused vendors appear to have had more mixed newbusiness quarters.Results suggest zs'core business remains steady,thoughslowing progress with emerging products may have driven a notable q/q declinein partner outperformance.Tothis point, net outperformancewith ZT Branchmore than halved inF2Q.Though weview many of these new products as trulyinnovative and seea pathtobroad adoption,we ponder theextentto which the term. Looking ahead, we expect mgmt.to set initial guidance within the 16-17%revenue and ARR growth framework established at F3Q results, setting ARRgrowth roughlyatthemidpointand revenuegrowthatouchhigher.NTSKlikewiseappearstohavehada mixedquarterwithasmanypartners outperformingtargetsas underperforming (and only 25% outperforming).Now four quarters intothemost recent rep hiring plan, we suspect signs of stabilizing sales productivity,implying low-double-digitSmNNARR outperformance, may be requiredfortheshares to trade higher.However, against our more muted survey results, weexpect more modest upside and for FY27 revenue guidance to be raised by themagnitude of the beat in the quarter. In coniunction with this report, we havedowngradedshares of NTSKtoHold. line with the four-quarter average as improving traction with cloud securitysetup, we thereforelook foran in-line print and formgmt.to remain prudent whenproviding updated new business commentary forFY27.In conjunction with thisreport, we have downgraded shares of S1 to Hold.RBRK posted a similarly mixedquarter.While we remain constructive onthecompany's abilitytodrivesustainedgrowththroughbroaderproductadoptionandworkloadcoverage,wepondertheextent to which rising hardware prices are impacting near-term demand. Thatsaid, against a favorable setup we look for mid-teens Sm Subscription ARRoutperformance and for the respectiveFY27Subscription ARR and revenueoutlooks to be raised by at least the magnitude of upside in the quarter. OKTA was the only vendor with negative partner outperformance as morerespondents missed quarterlytargetthanonesthatoutperformed.Momentumappears to have moderated across the platform as IAM, OIG, OPA, andAutho/CIAM all declined sequentially on this metric.Though, with mgmt.retaining a prudent guidance methodology,we look for cRPO to surpass themidpoint of guidanceby1.5%-2% and F3Q guidance tobe set at least in line withStreet. Cybersecurity incentives in thequarter net partner outperformanceticked lower sequentially,though remained roughlyin line with the four-quarter average.NG SIEM and Falcon Cloud Securityimprovementonapartneroutperformancebasis.Performance ofthelattermodule is particularly notable, and CRWD is perhaps benefiting from slowingmomentumat Wiz following its acquisitionby Google.Tothispoint,only25%offindings with bullish takes from our recent NDR and we therefore look for~2.5%/mid-single-digit Sm upside to implied NNARR guidance in the quarter (i