中国宏观追踪：技术摩擦，贸易稳定

China technology areas, though trade may stay broadly stable Chief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85239410063Taylor Wang loan caps,and othertier-one cities may follow suit Economist,ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+8522288 8650Heidi Li + Commercial banks have introduced DR001-linked loans, helpingto improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission AssociateGuangzhou China-Us relations: endured tech rivalry, continued engagementDespite improving China-Us bilateral trade (see China trade, 7 August), and continued high-level engagement, a fresh round of tit-for-tat restrictions has emergedrecently, particularly in tech areas, highlighting an enduring technology rivalry. TheUSside:1)theUSDepartmentofWar(DoW)addedtwomoreleadingChineseUniversities (Fudan and Shanghai Jiaotong University)to the National Securityblacklist,bringingthe total numberof Chineseuniversities onthe listto88(DoW,24July). There is a hard prohibition on DoW funding any fundamental researchconductedincollaborationwithblacklisteduniversities.Separately,researchcooperation involving personnel from blacklisted universities mayalso carry materialcomplianceriskevenwherenoDoWfundingisinvolved(SCMP,24July).Notablythe list includes 20 of the top 50 Chinese universities according to Academic Rankingof World Universities (also known as ShanghaiRanking). 2)On28 July,the USFederal CommunicationsCommission (FCC)updated its'Covered List'to include two newcategories of made-outside-Us devices-advancedrobotic devices and power inverters -for which Chinese manufacturers are globallycompetitive(IEEE Spectrum,4August).Any"Conditional Approval",which canexemptspecific devices from theCovered List'restrictions,would require foreignmanufacturers to disclose corporate structure and provided detailed manufacturingandsupplychaininformation,alongsideatime-boundplantoexpandUS-basedmanufacturing (FCC, 27 July). 3) the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) addedover40 Chinese entities to the"UyghurForced Labor Prevention Act Entity List"(UFLPA), expanding import detentions for goods linked to those firms (DHS, 31 July). China side: on 5 August, China's Ministry of Commerce and state regulatoryagencies launched a multi-pronged package of countermeasures, in response to Ussanctions linked to theFCC measures and UFLPA-related import detentions (Xinhua,5 August). Measures include: 1) tightening export controls on Us-bound drones, keycomponents, and related dual-use technologies; 2)adding six Us entities deemed tohave supported orassisted US sanctions related to Xinjiang on China'scountermeasure list; 3)suspending the use ofUs agencies to conduct factoryinspections requiredfor China Compulsory Certification (CCC),mandatory formanyproducts sold in China; and 4) launching a national security review,targetingimported printers, copiers, and office equipment running"foreign system software" HSBC13thAnnualChinaConference Shenzhen|1-2September2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com TreasurySecretaryBessentandUsTradeRepresentativeJamiesonGreer (Xinhua,30July).China also stressed that its countermeasures were overall"restrained", and that it values thehard-won stability in US-China economic and trade relations (Xinhua, 5 August).In our view, while tech rivalry and disputes in sensitive areas are likely to persist, the overall US-China trade relationship could remain relatively stable this year - provided broad-basedtrade-restrictive measures, including tariffs, are kept in check. potential China-US presidential-level touchpoints later this year: President Xi's scheduled visitto the US in September, the APEC Summit in Shenzhen in November,and the G20 Summit inMiami in December. Continued direct dialogue at the senior-leadership level should helpmanage frictions and reduce the risk of escalation. Property: Beijing introduced new easing measures; other tier-one cities mayfollow suitOn 7 August, Beijing rolled out new property-easing measures, including further relaxations tohome-purchase restrictions and higher caps on housing provident fund (HPF) loans (Xinhua, 7August).With newly issued commercial mortgage rates already at record lows (Q2 average:3.06%)and the PBoC expected to keep policy rates unchanged, optimising HPF policies hasbecome a key tool for major cities to lower homebuying costs,particularly as HPF loan ratesremain below commercial mortgage rates (2.6% for maturities over five years). In our view, with the late-July Politburo meeting reiterating the call to stabilise the propertymarket, other tier-one cities are likely to follow suit