NPO机遇叠加于CPO/OCS之上

Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) NPO Opportunity Is Layering on Top of CPO/OCS CITI'S TAKE LITE delivered strong results as Jun-Q sales/EPS were 2% and 9% aboveestimates while Sep-Q Sales and EPS guide came in 9%/16% ahead ofStreet estimates. We are notably reassured by management’s commentsaround 1) OCS being on track to deliver $400M+ in 2H26 2) CPO timelinestill unchanged while NPO opportunity layers on top and 3) LITE continuingtosee strong laser demand which remains 30%+above supply.Wesubsequently raise our sales estimates by 6%and 13%inFY2027E/FY2028E. This, coupled with the expectations that non-GAAPgross margin will surpass the company LT target of 50.5% as soon as Sep-26, culminate in a +9% and +17% EPS revision. With these growthassumptionswesee+19%/+20%salesandEPSupsideinFY2027E/FY2028E vs. Street and now value LITE at $1,200 or 35x P/Eapplied to our FY2028E earnings power of ~$37 discounted back (from 40xbefore reflecting peer-group de-rating). Jun-Q—LITE reported Jun-Q revs/non-GAAP (NG) EPS of $1B/$3.23 vs. our$988M/$2.97 and Street’s (FactSet) $988M/$2.96. Non-GAAP Gross margin came210bps above Street’s 48.3% estimate as it benefited from revenue volume,favorable mix, pricing increases and yield improvements. With gross marginreaching 50.4% in Jun-Q, LITE seems well on track to surpass its 50.5% LT GM inSep-Q. Sep-Q Guide—The company guided to a robust Sep-Q revenue/NG EPS of$1.25B/$4.20 (at MP) vs. our $1.2B/$3.77 and Street’s $1.15B/$3.60. The companyguided non-GAAP OM to 39.5% to 40.5% vs. Citi’s 37.6% and Street’s 37.3%. Papa SyllaAC+1-212-816-9476papa.sylla@citi.com Atif Malik+1-415-951-1892atif.malik@citi.com Key Takeaways from Management Callback: NPO vs. CPO Opportunity Sizing: On NPO versus CPO sizing, managementcharacterized both as opportunities, rather than offering a definitive call on whichwill be larger but noted that intensity from non-NVIDIA NPO deployers is runninghigher than what the company sees from NVIDIA today. Management explainedthat with NVIDIA, only a small portion of the CPO/scale-up opportunity isexpected to be external light source (ELS)-based, whereas for other customers amuch larger share (in many cases the entirety) of the opportunity is expected to beELS. Management framed this as a revenue opportunity multiplied by opticalintensity, which makes the emerging NPO opportunities look attractive inaggregate even though the near-term scale-up shipment cadence to NVIDIA (endof calendar 2027 into early 2028) remains unchanged, with the newer NPOopportunities layering in over that same window. Ramp Cadence and the NVDA Rack Debate:On the ramp cadence and the Kyberrack debate, management pushed back on the market’s tendency to linkLumentum’s scale-up timeline to the Kyber rack schedule. Management reiteratedthat as long as a multi-rack configuration exists, the rack-to-rack (north-south)opportunity is not contingent on Kyber rack timing. Management confirmed thatat-the-rack CPO connections — the vertical, in-rack connections associated withscale-up — remain on track for second half of calendar 2028 shipment ahead of a2029 deployment, while the NPO-related, north-south, in-rack opportunity isexpected to ship in the fourth quarter of calendar 2027 ramping into early 2028. CPO-to-NPO Content Comparability:On the CPO-to-NPO content question,management was explicit that NPO is incremental to CPO rather than a substitute.Management confirmed that in cases where NVIDIA or similar customers use eitherarchitecture, the same external light source configuration is retained, meaningcontent is largely comparable across CPO and NPO for those customers.Management noted that scale-out CPO shipments are ongoing today and scale-updemand continues to outstrip supply, with no hesitation observed from the leadcustomer. Separately, management flagged that certain non-NVIDIA NPOcustomers are embedding the laser directly inside the optical engine rather thanusing an external source, which is where the mid-power (120mW and 150mW) laseropportunity comes in — an additional, incremental customer set beyond NVIDIA. Competitive Positioning in Lower-Power Embedded Lasers: On competitivepositioning in the lower-power (120–150mW) embedded laser segment,management acknowledged the timing is later than the ELS-based CPO and NPOopportunities, with shipments potentially happening in the first half of calendar2028 and production ramping in the second half. Management said the companycurrently sees no direct competition in this segment, though highlighted that itremains early. Management argued that scaling a 400mW laser down to 120–150mW is structurally easier than scaling a lower-power (70–100mW) laser up to120mW, given that reliability requirements at the higher end are comparable ormore stringent. Management noted the company has not yet officially won adesign in this embedded-engine category, though the shipment timing impliesthese programs are targeted at scale-up applications. EML-to-CW C