亚太自动化行业处于长期上行周期

Industria Asia Automation confirmedsustainedupcyclesupportedbyAlcapex+ Al server connectors, casing,chip production drive demand Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk85229966942Corey Chan*(Reg.No.S1700518100001) forCNC/machinetool/pneumatic/linearmotion/vision Head, A-share Industrials &Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcorey.chan@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662001Kenneth Chin*, CFA +Prefer Hiwin on monthly sales/margin upside; Fanuc on over-correction;Inovanceon industrial AlandZhaoweionhands When did this upcycle begin: The current upcycle began in 3Q25 (see: Optimistic on2026 demand, 1 Oct 2025) and has run for roughly a year already. Our research indicatesthatinvestorsareconcernedthatitmayhavepeaked in2Q26.However,wehavenotseen signs of slowing down. We think Al server and semiconductor end-markets aresustaining, despite risks from rising costs and delayed shipments. Associate,Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedkenneth.t.k.chin@hsbc.com.hk+85228224521Dun Wang*, CFA, CPA (Reg. No.S1700519060002) Analyst, A-share Industrials & Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddun.wang@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662027Bart Liu* Strong order visibility sustained until end-2026, driven by Al server and semi:Fanuc/SMC/THK's April to June orders sped upfrom the previous quarterto37/56/70%revenue growth in 2026 (up from 3% to mid-teens percentages previously, exhibit 1). Webelieve Al capex should drive a sustained demand upcycle into 2H26. In addition, auto,whichwas traditionally thelargestdownstream sectorfor automationplayers,hasstabilised, with China NEV demand remaining solid, offset by weakness in Europe. AssociateGuangzhou *Employedbyanon-USaffliateofHSBCSecurities(USA) Inc,andisnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations What could make us more pessimistic: We think risks to a continued upcycleinclude rising rawmaterial costs causing stronger marginpressureor JPYappreciationcausing slowerrevenuegrowthandmargin pressure.Inaddition,Japanautomationplayersarefacingsomerawmaterial bottlenecksinchipsandrareearthmaterials,causingshipmentbottlenecks.Webelievetheseimpactsarecurrentlylimited, but if they worsen, could make us more pessimistic. Howtoposition from here?Automation stock performance has diverged (seepp.1).Between Airtac (1590 TW, Buy)and Hiwin (2049 TW, Buy), we prefer Hiwingiven more catalysts for monthly sales and margin upside. In Japan, the share priceof Fanuc (6954JP,Buy)wasdown8%overthepast3months,butKeyence(6861JP, Buy) was up 46% (vs TOPIXup6% over sameperiod).WepreferFanuc, aswethink concerns around margin pressure are overdone,and a re-rating could start ifthere is sustained growth in July to September earnings. We also like Inovance(300124 CH, Buy) as it is well positioned to benefit from industrial Al, and Zhaowei -H(2692 HK, Buy) for its dexterous hand exposure. HSBCFundingtheFuture Survey This is ourlatest reporton theAutomation theme.If you want to subscribe toany of our nine big themes, click here. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Contents Focus charts2Global manufacturing PMi4Japan machinery order indicators5Japan machine tool indicators8Japanmachinecomponentproductionandshipments14Robot indicators18Mainland China manufacturing indicators20Export demand indicators21Share prices have historically led the shipment cycle23Valuation and risks26 Disclosure appendix 28 Disclaimer 31 The Japan Cabinet Office publishes monthly statistics forgeneral machineryordersby collecting data from 280 manufacturers with over 80%coverage of all downstream sectors.According to the office, its statistics cover machinery orders in engines and turbines, heavyelectrical machinery, electronic &communication equipment, industrial machinery, machinetools,railwayrollingstock,roadvehicles,aircraft,shipsandwatercraft.Thedownstreamsectorsare further categorised into manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities, includingautomotive and information&communication electronics (ICE) classifiedbytheJapanCabinetOffice,whichincludeboilers,motors,earthmoving/constructionequipment,officeequipment,refrigeratingequipment,andsemiconductorfabricatingequipmentIn terms ofmachine tool downstream applications, in 2018, c39% ofapplications were in the general machinery category,33%inautomobiles, 10% in electrical and precision and theremaining 18% in other categories.These orders usuallylead production by6-12months,while the export figuresmove hand in handwithproduction. Exhibit 22: Japan machinery orders, bysector,2025 M-o-m order growth:Total: +4%Domestic:19%Exports: +0% Japan's topfourmachinet