2026-2027年第二季度欧洲经济和钢铁市场展望报告

FIRSTQUARTERREPORT Data up to, andincluding,third quarter 2025 March 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EUsteel demand is showing signs ofstabilisation after three consecutive years ofcontraction, but the recovery remains modestand uncertain. Even with expected growth in2025–2027, consumption levels will remain wellbelow pre-pandemic levels. At the same time,import penetration has reached record highs,underscoring the structural pressures facing theEuropean steel market. This reflects the continueddownsizing of the Europeansteel industry and persistentlylow capacity utilisation, drivenby weak demand in recent yearsand increasing pressure fromimports. RECENT DEVELOPMENTSAND OUTLOOK EU STEEL MARKET OVERVIEW In the third quarter of 2025, apparent steelconsumption increased year-on-year by +4.6%,followingtwo consecutive quarterly declines(-1.7% in the preceding quarter). This increaselargely reflects comparison with unusually lowvolumes recorded on year earlier, as well ashigher-than-expected demand in some nationalmarkets. Total consumption volume in the thirdquarter of 2025 stood at 32 million tonnes. Contrary to earlier expectations of a furthermarginaldecline,the industrial outlook hasslightly improved in 2025 and steel demandhas shown signs of stabilisation, particularlyin the second half of the year. However, thislargelyreflects comparison with very weakvolumes recorded in the second half of 2024. Asa result, apparent steel consumption in 2025 isexpected to rebound by +2.4% compared with a-0.2% decline in the previous outlook. This willbe driven by stronger-than-expected growth insome national markets, which will partly offsetthe impact of trade disruptions including thosecaused by the U.S. tariffs. Domesticdeliveries broadly mirrored theevolution of demand and increased year-on-yearby +3.4%, in the third quarter of 2025, following adecline of -1.6% in the previous quarter. In earlieryears, domestic deliveries had declined sharply(-4.6% in 2023 and -2.8% in 2024), reflectingpersistently weak steel demand. On the supply side, EU crudesteel production fell to a newrecord low in 2025, reaching125.8million tonnescompared with 130 milliontonnes in 2024, a year-on-year decline of around 3%. Imports into the EU, including semi-finishedproducts, increased sharply (+10%) in the thirdquarter of 2025, after declining in in the previousquarter (-3.2%). As a result, the share of importsin EU apparent steel consumption reached arecord-high level of 29%, compared with 25% inthe preceding quarter. Over the entire year 2024,the share of imports stood at 27%. EU STEEL-USING SECTORS CONCLUSIONS After proving resilient over the two previousyears,SWIP experienced recession in 2024(-3.5%).This decline was mainly driven byreductionsin construction and automotiveoutput (by -1.6% and -9.6% respectively). Duetogrowing uncertainty following U.S.tariffannouncements, another recession, albeit moremoderate, is anticipated in 2025 (-0.3%, comparedwiththe previously expected-1.5%),despiterecovery in the construction sector (+0.7%). Thisreflects further contractions in automotive andin mechanical engineering output (-4.3% and-0.8% respectively). In the third quarter of 2025, the Steel WeightedIndustrial Production index (SWIP) increased by+1.8%, following six consecutive quarterly drops(-0.7% in the second quarter). Until the end of2023, EU steel-using sectors had continued toshow resilience and growth, albeit at a slowerpace, despite the prolonged impact of Russia’sinvasion of Ukraine, manufacturing weaknessand geopolitical tensions weighing on industrialconfidence and business investment. Despite monetary easing in the course of 2024as the European Central Bank reversed its earliertightening in response to record-high inflationin the second half of 2022, developments in theSWIP index continued to reflect a downturn in themechanicalengineering,domestic appliancesand metalware sectors, and particularly in theautomotive industry, which is most exposed toglobal trade and external shocks. A moderate rebound in SWIP growth is expectedin 2025 (+1.9%, revised from +1.6%), followed bysome acceleration in 2027 (+2.2%), supportedparticularly by growth in construction outputand recovery in automotive output. By contrast, the construction sector has shownsome signs of recovery since the second quarterof 2025. In the third quarter of 2025 there weresigns of some improvement in manufacturingactivityand in steel-using sector outputreflectingmodest improvements in leadingindustrial indicators and the delayed effects oflow interest rates. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2 CONTENTS4 THE EU STEEL MARKET: SUPPLY6 REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION............................................................................ 6THIRD QUARTER OF 2025....................................................................................................... 6APPARENT STEEL CONSUMPTION..................................................................... 7THIRD QUARTER OF 202