PCB：进入新增长周期

MichelleJingSFC CE No. BUK594michellejing@gfgroup.com.hkJeff Pu, CFASFC CE No. BNO719jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk What's new Based on recent developments across the PCB industry and continued upstream raw material inflation, we provide an updated view onthe PCB sectorbelow.WetransferredPCB coverage to Michelle Jing andour preferred names include:1)Zhen Ding(4958 TT)for itsmarket share gainsinNVIDIA and strong mSAP capabilities; 2)EMC(2383 TT)for its share gains at Google and product mix upgradetowardM7+materials; 3)Co-Tech(8358 TT)for its rapid HVLP3/4 capacity expansion and margin upside from processing feeincreases;and 4)KB(1888 HK)for itsongoingE-glass and FR-4 pricing cycle, alongside high-end fabric capacity expansion and customerqualification progress. Comments AI PCBentering avolume and ASPexpansioncycle:1) Vera Rubin is expected to begin shipments in September,with~10k racks tobeshippedby end-2026 and ~80k racks in 2027.PCB content value per GPU is expected to increase to~$750(up from $400 for GB200);2)GoogleTPUv8t/v8iis expected to ramp from 4Q26,with120k racks expected to ship in 2027 and PCB content value estimated atUS$800–1,000, compared to US$700 for v7.Overall, we expect the AIserverPCB TAM to expand from~US$13bn in 2026 to US$29bnin 2027.Among PCB suppliers, we favor Zhen Ding due to its market share gains in NVIDIA’s platforms and mSAPleadership in bothoptical modules and future projects including CPO.Additionally, we do not expect mSAP tobecomeoversupplied in 2027dueto:1)themigration of 800G optical modules from traditional tenting processes toward mSAP;2) lower yield and capacity ramp schedule. CCLbenefiting fromdualgrowthdrivers--FR-4priceinflation andhigh-endmaterialmigration: 1)FR-4 price has increased multipletimes, doubling to ~RMB300 since mid-2025.We believe the current pricing cyclewill continue throughat leastend-2027, supported bypersistent E-glass supply constraints.For KB’s traditional FR-4 and E-glass business, we believe the current cycle will significantly exceedthe previous 2021 peak in bothcycle duration(potentiallyinto2028)and profitability(with gross margin potentially reaching ~45%, abovethe previous cycle peakat 34%).2)As AI customers increasingly migrate toward M8+ CCL materials,EMC is expected to gradually phaseout M6 and below products starting from 2H27.Beyond ASPand marginexpansion driven by product mix improvement, EMC is alsoexpected to continue gaining share in Google TPU(70% share in Sunfish and future projects). Structural shortages in E-glass and copper foil to persist through 2027:1)Currently, we estimate the E-glass supply shortage at~15%. However, addressing this gap would require around 3,000 additional weaving machines, compared with Toyota’s current annualcapacity of only~2,000 machines(already fully booked through 2028).Furthermore,increasing demand for high-end fabrics is absorbingadditional weaving capacity, further tightening supply availability for standard E-glass products.2)Global HVLP4 capacity is expected toreach only around 1.2kt/month by end-2026, implying a supply deficit of at least 400t/monthand capacity isconstrained by Toyo-Mifune’ssurface treatment equipment, which is already fully booked through 2028. Risks 1) AI demand slowing down; 2)Geo-political risks; 3) Competition. Orthogonalmidplane solutionqualification updates:Based onour checks, the final PTFE-basedsolution remains under qualification. Currently, the PTFE + hydrocarbonsolutionhaspassed theelectrical performancequalification, with full PCBqualificationpending. Meanwhile, the M10+Q-glasssolutionis also underqualification (its electrical performance is~10% below that of the PTFE+hydrocarbon solution, suggesting it is more likely to serve as a backup option). mSAPand VPD, key technologies for next-gen PCBs: mSAP:As high-density interconnectrequirementsmove beyond the current 40–45μm line/space(L/S)capability of conventionalsubtractive PCB processes,weexpect broader adoption ofSubstrate-Like PCBs(SLPs), whichrequire mSAP technology capable of achieving sub-30/30μm L/S (seeFigure 1). Wesee800G/1.6Toptical modulesare adopting mSAP. Furthermore, mSAP enables the formation of RDLsdirectly onPCBs, making it a key enabler of CoWoP architecture. According to our checks, CoWoPcould beadopted in futureCPOas well asfutureJetsonplatforms.VPD (Vertical Power Delivery):Powerdelivery architecture is evolving from SCP toward backside VPD, which embeds inductors andcapacitors on the backside of the PCBthrough embedded component processes.Per our checks,theFeynman architectureis likely to incorporate VPD technology. Upstreammaterial inflation remains intact:E-Glass:Current pricing for 7628 cloth exceedsRMB8.5/m, while 1080 cloth is tradingabove RMB10.5/m. Several E-glass CCL production lines havealreadystoppedproduction due to raw material shortages. We expectthetight supply and upwardpricing trend to persist through end-2027,driven by1)limited new kiln additions;2)more than one-year lead t