不确定时期的电动汽车市场：2026年全球电动汽车展望更新

An update to the Global EV Outlook 2026 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that willenhance the reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,14Association countriesand beyond. IEAAccessioncountries: IEAMembercountries: ChileColombiaCosta RicaBrazilIsraelRomania AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEAAssociationcountries: ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoNigeriaSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineViet Nam This publication, as well asany dataand map includedherein,are without prejudiceto the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This report was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division of theDirectorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA). The project was designed and directed by Timur Gül, Chief Energy TechnologyOfficer.Araceli Fernandez Pales,Head of the Technology Innovation Unit,provided strategic guidance throughout the development of the project. ElizabethConnelly co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report. The main authors of the report were (in alphabetical order): Elizabeth Connelly,Mathilde Huismans and Jules Sery. Other IEA colleagues that made valuablecontributions to the report include Teo Lombardo and Leonardo Paoli. Lizzie Sayeredited the manuscript. LauraCozzi,IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller,provided valuable insights andfeedback. The IEA’s Communications and Digital Office provided support in producing thereport, providing website materials and promoting it. Thanks go to Jethro Mullen,Maria Ahmad, Isabella Batten, Poeli Bojorquez, Curtis Brainard, Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Julia Horowitz, Lucile Wall. IEA analysis related to electric vehicles is supported by member governments ofthe CEM Electric Vehicles Initiative. Table of contents Executive summary.................................................................................................................. 5Introduction............................................................................................................................... 7The 2026 energy crisis has put EVs in the spotlight ...................................................7Trends in global car markets .................................................................................................. 8Global car markets are under pressure in 2026..........................................................8Electric car sales have grown in more than 90 countries over H1 2026,compared to H1 2025.................................................................................................9Car exports from China continue to expand while those from other majorproducing regions have stagnated ...........................................................................15Implications for the global car industry............................................................................... 19Incumbent car makers are losing market share ........................................................19Automotive component supply chains are changing.................................................21Employment at risk in incumbent car-making regions ..............................................24Drivers of change and future strategies .............................................................................. 26Annex....................................................................................................................................... 31 Executive summary Electric car sales prove resilient despite a weakeningglobal car market Road transport and electric vehicles (EVs) have been in the spotlight amidthe current energy crisis.Road vehicles account for nearly half of global oil use,making the sector particularly exposed to fuel price spikes and supply disruptions.The sector is also a key driver of oil imports in import-dependent regions. Policyand industry responses to the energy crisis – especially those related to EVs –have the potential to further accelerate changes in a global car industry that isalready in flux. Electric car sales rebounded in the second quarter of 2026, even as globalcar sales declined.Sales of electric cars were 4% higher year-on-year (y-