2026年全球汽车市场更新报告

Global Autos MarketUpdate 2026 The framework for US tariffs on autos and auto parts issettling How will global automakers and parts suppliers adapt toalleviate the burden? Changes in emission regulations and purchaseincentives will impact the adoption of electric vehicles inChina, Europe and the US 2 Agenda Fierce competition in the Chinese auto marketWill global automakers and suppliers adapt or retreat? Challenged export markets, increased competition andmuted domestic demand US consumers are becoming more anxious aboutinflation, tariffs and the labor market Should auto captive finance companies be concerned? Global light vehicle sales to grow under 2% in 2026 China sales expectationstempered by: Electrification drives local brands’ share gains in China End of EV tax credits will downshift adoption rate in US Can lower sales improve EV economics? Tariff Roller Coaster U.S. tariff rate, % Composition of Tariff Pass-Through Division of tariff costs through August 2025 Improvement in Affordability Halted Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index, wks of median income to purchase new vehicle Japanese Automakers’ Discounting Is Ending Export price deflator indexes, yen basis US tariffs hurt automakers 50% of vehicle imports from Mexico, Canada European suppliers' margins to recover moderately in 2026 Benefits from restructuring and lower tariff exposure enables parts suppliers togenerate temporarily higher EBIT margins versus automakers Confidence Near Record Lows The Well-To-Do Are Powering Consumer Spending Personal outlays by income group, 1999Q4=100 Asset quality stabilizes, although delinquencies increasemoderately in Q3 2025 Lease portfolios are supported by used vehicles’ valuestability Thank you Matthias HellsternMD-Corporate FinanceCorporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsMatthias.Hellstern@moodys.com Rene LipschSenior Vice President,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsRenier.Lipsch@moodys.com Eric GreaserVP-Senior Analyst,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsEric.Greaser@moodys.com Götz GrossmanVP-Senior Analyst,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsGoetz.Grossmann@moodys.com Matthias HeckVP-Sr Credit Officer,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsMatthias.Heck@moodys.com Cindy YangVP-Senior Analyst,Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratingsliu.yang@moodys.com Inna BodeckVP-Sr Credit OfficerFinancial Institutions, Moody’s Ratingsinna.bodeck@moodys.com Moritz MelsbachVP - Senior Analyst,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsMatthias.Heck@moodys.com Roman SchorrVP-Senior Analyst,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsRoman.Schorr@moodys.com Michael BrissonHead of US Autos EconomicsMoody’smichael.brisson@moodys.com Gerwin HoVP-Sr Credit Officer,Corporate Finance, Moody’s RatingsGerwin.Ho@moodys.com Thank you such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arisingwhere the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S. © 2025 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates(collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved. To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliersdisclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to byany negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannotbe excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers,employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THERELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, ANDMATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED OR OTHERWISE MADE AVAILABLE BY MOODY’S(COLLECTIVELY, “MATERIALS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THERISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANYESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE APPLICABLE MOODY’S RATINGSYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIALOBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK,INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY ORFITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATIONIS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a w