潍柴动力上行潜力对标康明斯卡特彼勒GE及AIDC资金流向的交叉验证

China Auto ManufacturersWeichaiUpsidePotentialCross-ReadfromCAT/CMI/INIO/GEV& AIDC/AIFundFlow 900unitsinshipments(1H:1,400units),with2026E>4kunits,whichshouldhelpliftthegroup'stotal2QGPMto22%orabove,and2QNPto>Rmb3.8bn(alsopartiallyduetosomeone-offitems),aheadofconsensus.Weare confidentintheoutlookforWeichaidueto(1)recentfundflow;(2)CAT/CMI2Qperformance;and(3)cross-readfromGEV.US&INIO.US.Moreover,cross-readfromSinotrukonthe2H26ChinaHDTdemandoutlook(1HEarningsPreview&2Houtlook)seemstoberelativelymorepositivethanconsensusforWeichai'straditionalbusinessoutlook.WemaintainSinotruk,CheryandMinthasdefensivelong-termBuys,andrecognizeWeichaiaslikelyaglobal lagger,whichwouldlikelybenefitiffundflowreturnstoAl-relatedinfrastructurenamesin3Q26 +852-2501-2787jeff.m.chung@citi.comKyle Wu +852-2501-8483kyle.wu@citi.com Intermsoffundflow,weestimateourAIDC/SOFC/Alweighted-indexrose26%inthepast7tradingdaysmainly,duetoBloomEnergy's(+40%)outperformanceafter2Qearningsbeat,aswellasGenerac's8%hike.ThiscoincidedwithWeichaiPower's7%sharepricerallyoverthesameperiod,outperformingSinotruk(+0%). What'smore,recentCAT/CMI2Qearningsprovidestrongevidenceonrobuststructuraldemandforhigh-endpowergenerationgloballyontheongoingboomindatacentersandAl-drivenbackupinfrastructure,e.g.Caterpillar's2Qdatacenterdemand(power-generation sales)wasup72%,drivenbylargegeneratorsetsandturbinesdeployedindatacenters,aswellasanextendedbacklogtoUss72b,withfurthersupporta steepAiDC andbackupenginedemandgrowthtrajectoryandlikelyroundsofpotentialearningsuplifttoWeichai's2H26and2027/28profitandmargins.Meanwhile, CMI's2Qpower systemEBITDAmargin was24.5%,mainlyduetoAIDC-related,large-born engines'strong GPM contribution,followedbyordersduration (already soldout)upto2H28,afterconnectionwithglobalhyperscalers. On theother hand,as at theend of1H26,we note INiO.us order backlog(mainlyJenbacherengine)appearstobestrongduetoAIDC-relateddemand(USs6.6bn,up279%YoY,with2QordersaloneatUS$2.3b).Accordingtothecompany,FY26/27production was sold out.Finally,GEVernova's(GEV.US)1H26 electrificationdivisionalordersreachedUSs5bn (higherthan itsFY25total orders),mainlyduetohyperscalerdatacenterdemandfortransformers. whilethemarketmayneedmoreevidenceinfundamentalnumberstosupportatroughofvaluations:BYD(1211.HK):FundamentalsandAlFundFlows:SectorLikelyEntering Stage-2Unwinding (BuyHesai/Pony/WeRide/Horizon). Note:We developed an AIDC/SOFC/AI-Hardware weighted index, by assigning50%/50% weight on daily share price of Generac/Bloom Energy. Source: Citi Research Estimates,Bloomberg HesaiGroup(2525.HK; HK$17.15;1;06Aug26;16:10)Horizon Robotics (9660.HK; HK$5.15;1H; 06Aug26;16:10)Minth (0425.HK; HK$28.84;1; 06 Aug 26;16:10)Pony AI (PONY.O;US$7.78; 1H; 06 Aug 26;16:00)PonyAlInc(2026.HK;HK$59.95;1H;06Aug26;16:10)Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808.HK; HK$41.9;1; 06Aug 26;16:10)Weichai Power(2338.HK;HK$34.34;1;06Aug26;16:10)WeRide(WRD.0;US$5.9;1H;06Aug26;16:00)WeRide (0800.HK; HK$15.4; 1H; 06 Aug 26; 16:10) ofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-500-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearch reportareeither(i)designated by"Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listedinboldalongsidecontentwhichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleAcanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportissuerandsecurity referencedand werepreparedinan independent manner,including withrespecttoCitigroup GlobalMarketsInc.and itsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst's compensation was,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES TheFirm hasmadea market in the publicly traded equity securities of Horizon Robotics on at least oneoccasion since1Jan For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity providerinsuchfinancial instruments(and anyunderlying instruments)and mayactas principalin connection withtransactions inrecommended intheProduct.TheFirm regularlytrades inthe securities ofthe issuer(s)discussed intheProduct.TheFirmmayengage in securitiestransactions ina manner inconsistentwith the Productand,withrespectto securities covered bytheProduct,will buyorsellfromcustomers onaprincipalbasis. The Firmis a market makerin thepubliclytraded equitysecurities of Horizon Robotics,Weichai Power.Unless statedotherwiseneitherthe Research Analyst noranymember of theirteamhas viewedthematerialoperations oftheCompaniesforwhichaninvestmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months textofthemostrecentresearchnote/